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:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 May 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2014
May 19 May 20 May 21
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 2
06-09UT 1 1 2
09-12UT 1 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 2
15-18UT 1 1 2
18-21UT 1 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2014
May 19 May 20 May 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2014
May 19 May 20 May 21
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists for the
next three days (19-21 May).