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05150030three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 05150030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2014
May 15 May 16 May 17
00-03UT 1 3 2
03-06UT 1 3 1
06-09UT 2 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 3 1 1
15-18UT 4 1 1
18-21UT 3 1 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Active conditions (less than G1) are expected on May 15 due to a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2014
May 15 May 16 May 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2014
May 15 May 16 May 17
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
during May 15 - 17 due to the flare potential of a couple of the sunspot
groups presently on the disk.