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05040030three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 05040030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2014
May 04 May 05 May 06
00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 4 3 1
06-09UT 3 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 1 2 1
15-18UT 1 2 1
18-21UT 1 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2014
May 04 May 05 May 06
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2014
May 04 May 05 May 06
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for
R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are possible due to the flare
potential that exists from complex Regions 2047, 2049 and 2051.