home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
forecasts
/
three_day
/
05020030three_day_forecast.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-05-01
|
2KB
|
53 lines
:Product: 05020030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2014
May 02 May 03 May 04
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 3
06-09UT 1 1 3
09-12UT 1 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 1
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2014
May 02 May 03 May 04
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2014
May 02 May 03 May 04
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: A chance for an R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout exists
for the forecast period (May 02-04).