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04221230three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 04221230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2014
Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24
00-03UT 1 3 3
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014
Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2014
Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24
R1-R2 40% 35% 30%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 1%
Rationale: There is a chance for NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate radio
blackouts for the forecast period (22-24 Apr) as the majority of the
most complex spot groups rotate around the west limb.