home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
forecasts
/
three_day
/
04140030three_day_forecast.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-04-13
|
2KB
|
53 lines
:Product: 04140030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 14-Apr 16 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 14-Apr 16 2014
Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
00-03UT 2 3 2
03-06UT 3 2 1
06-09UT 3 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 1 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2014
Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2014
Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
R1-R2 35% 40% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for an R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackout, particularly from Region 2035.