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05190030forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05190030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2056 (N04W91, Esi/beta-gamma) produced a
long-duration C3/Sf flare at 18/0654 UTC which was the largest event of
the period.
Region 2066 (S16W26, Dao/beta) exhibited minor growth this period while
the other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.
New Region 2069 (S18E52, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this
period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (19 -
21 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (19 - 21 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (19 - 21 May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were
steady near 340 - 360 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady
near 4 - 6 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -4 nT.
The phi angle remained oriented is a positive (away) sector throughout
the period.
.Forecast...
Background solar wind parameters are expected to persist on days one and
two (19 - 20 May) with a slight enhancement in the 400 - 500 km/s range
likely on day three (21 May) due to the onset of a weak coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field is expected was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for days one and two
(19 - 20 May) with quiet to unsettled conditions on day three (21 May)
due to CH HSS effects.