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05161230forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05161230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/1f at 16/0704 UTC from Region 2056 (N06W59, Eai/beta-gamma).
Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2056
while umbral separation was observed in the leader spot of Region 2063
(N10E23, Dai/beta-gamma). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were
observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (16 - 18 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (16 - 18
May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (16 - 18
May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions continued at nominal levels. Solar wind speed
ranged from 327 km/s to 368 km/s. Total field was relatively steady
between 4 nT and 8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +7 nT
and -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to be at nominal levels for the
forecast period (16 - 18 May).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast
period (16 - 18 May).