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05110030forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05110030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2056 (N05E16,
Ehi/beta-gamma) produced a C8/1n flare at 10/0702 UTC which was the
largest event of this period. A Type-II radio sweep with an estimated
velocity of 960 km/s was observed in conjunction with a C2/Sf flare from
Region 2052 (S12W60, Bxo/beta) at 10/0939 UTC.
Both Region 2055 (N12E04, Eho/beta-gamma) and Region 2056 exhibited
minor overall decay with separation in their trailer spot areas. Region
2058 (S15E45, Fao/beta-gamma) showed spot growth around its main leader
and trailer spots while developing magnetic mixed fields within its
intermediate spots. This region now joins Regions 2055 and 2056 as the
most magnetically complex spot groups on the visible disk.
Numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.
Subsequent analysis indicated these CMEs were associated with backside
activity and as a result, are not Earth-directed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare
activity over the next three days (11 - 13 May) due to active region
complexity.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was slightly enhanced but remained well below the S1 (Minor)
threshold.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels for the next three days (11 - 13 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
be at or near background levels for the next three days (11 - 13 May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued influence from
a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speeds were relatively steady in the 350 - 400 km/s range. IMF
total magnetic field strength values ranged from 4 nT to 8 nT while the
Bz component ranged between +7 nT and -7 nT. The phi angle remained
steady in a mostly negative (toward) sector with brief positive (away)
incursions from 10/1020 - 1345 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to continued
CH HSS influence for days one and two (11 - 12 May) with wind speeds
in the 300 - 400 km/s range. Nominal wind parameters are expected by day
three (13 May) as CH HSS effects wane.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to
unsettled levels for the next two days (11 - 12 May) due to continued CH
HSS effects. Predominately quiet conditions are expected by day three
(13 May) as the CH HSS influence subsides.