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05030030forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05030030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2047 (S18W28, Dkc/beta-gamma) continued
to grow and showed some consolidation in the intermediate and leader
spots. It produced a few C-class flares during the period including a
C4/Sf at 02/0940 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 images showed coronal dimming but no
CME was evident on LASCO data. Minor spot and penumbral development
occurred in the interior portion of Region 2049 (S07W00,
Ekc/beta-gamma), but it was quiet in terms of flare production. New
Region 2051 (S10W37, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) grew significantly during the
past 24 hours and increased in magnetic complexity to include a delta in
its trailer spots. New Region 2052 (S11E49, Cro/beta) also continued to
grow but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs occurred during the
period
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (03-05 May) with
a increased chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (03-05 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated nominal wind characteristics during the period. Wind
speed was in the 325 km/s to 385 km/s range. IMF Bt gradually decreased
from 4 nT to 2 nT as the period progressed. IMF Bz ranged from 4 nT to
-4 nT, and was northward during a majority of the period. IMF Phi data
indicated a positive-polarity (away) solar sector through the period.
.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected during day one (03 May). A
slow-moving CME, associated with a B9 flare on Apr 29, is expected to
arrive at Earth early on 04 May. Increases in solar wind speed, IMF Bt,
and IMF Bz variability are expected on 04 May with the CME. Solar wind
speeds are expected to remain slightly elevated on 05 May as a weak
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective
position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day one
(03 May). Field activity is forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 May), with a slight chance for active levels (less
than G1-Minor), due to an expected CME arrival. Unsettled conditions are
expected to continue on day three (05 May) due to the anticipated
arrival of a CH HSS.