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05010030forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05010030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a
C1/Sf flare at 30/0620 UTC from Region 2049 (S07E29, Dki/beta-gamma).
Region 2050 (N12E31, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1 flare at 30/0126 UTC. The
five numbered sunspot groups showed a general trend of stability. The
coronal mass ejection (CME) mentioned in the previous discussion was
determined to be non-geoeffective as it was a far-sided event. A
disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed in GONG H-Alpha movie
imagery lifting off of the northeast quadrant at approximately 30/0900
UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO imagery but is not expected
to be geoeffective.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
(R1-Minor) flare on days one through three (01-03 May).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (01-03 May). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated continued influence from a slow moving transient
passage. Wind speed was steady in the 300-340 km/s range. Total IMF
values peaked at 10 nT and were elevated throughout the period. Bz
reached a southward extent of -9 nT and was mostly negative through the
majority of the period. Phi angle began the period in a negative
(towards) orientation but switched to a predominately positive (away)
sector at approximately 30/1000 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue into day one (01
May) followed by a gradual recovery to nominal solar wind conditions.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active (less than G1-Minor) due to
the transient passage mentioned above.
.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions with a slight chance for an isolated period
of minor storming (G1-Minor) are expected on day one (01 May). Day two
(02 May) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as transient effects
subside. Day three (03 May) should see a return to mostly quiet
conditions.