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04291230forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 04291230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2048 (N20W58, Dao/beta) produced frequent
optical subflares during the first half of the period, associated with
B- and C-class flares. Region 2048 produced a single B-class flare
during the latter half of the period and showed signs of minor decay.
Region 2049 (S07E50, Dko/beta) showed gradual spot and penumbra
development in its intermediate segment and produced a few optical
subflares during the first half of the period. Region 2047 (S18E21,
Dao/beta) showed minor spot and penumbra development in its intermediate
segment, but it produced no flares during the period. The remaining two
spotted regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low through the period (Apr 29 - May 01)
with a slight chance for an M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels during the period (Apr 29 - May 01).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated nominal solar wind conditions during the period. Wind
speed ranged from 216 to 316 km/s. IMF Bt ranged from 1 to 4 nT, while
IMF BZ was in the 2 to -3 nT range. IMF Phi data indicated a mostly
positive-polarity (away) solar sector during the first half of the
period, then shifted to a negative-polarity (toward) sector for the rest
of the period.
.Forecast...
A slight increase in wind speed is expected on Apr 29 as Earth comes
under the influence of a weak, recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). Slightly elevated wind speeds are expected to persist into Apr
30, followed by a return to nominal wind conditions on May 01 as CH HSS
effects subside.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during Apr. 29 - 30 due to
weak CH HSS effects. A return to quiet conditions is expected on May 01.