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04281230forecast_discussion.txt
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2014-04-28
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:Product: 04281230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels with only a few B-class events
recorded. Region 2045 (S23W36, Cao/beta) showed some trailer spot decay.
Region 2047 (S18E34, Cao/beta) exhibited trailer and intermediate spot
growth while Region 2048 (N21W43, Dai/beta) indicated slight
intermediate spot consolidation along with potential mixed polarities.
The remaining spotted regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
detected.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the next three
days (28-30 Apr).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (28-30 Apr).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were nominal for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed steadily declined through the period
from around 350 km/s to end-of-period speeds of about 300 km/s. IMF Bt
held steady near 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 3 nT
through 28/0048 UTC when it trended southward to near -4 nT. The Phi
component indicated a predominately negative (toward) orientation
through 28/0050 UTC when a more positive (away) orientation was
observed.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be nominal for day
one (28 Apr). A slight increase in wind speed is expected by day two (29
Apr) as Earth comes under the influence of a weak, recurrent coronal
hole high-speed-stream (CH HSS). Slightly elevated wind speeds are
expected to persist into day three (30 Apr).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 28/0300-0600 UTC.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the first day of the forecast
period (28 Apr). Days two and three (29-30 Apr) are predicted to be
quiet to unsettled due to weak CH HSS effects.