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2014-04-22
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:Product: 04230030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to low-level C-class activity, the
largest flare was an impulsive C8/Sf flare at 22/1137 UTC from Region
2035 (S13W71, Eac/beta). Region 2035 and Region 2038 (S12W33,
Dac/beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex and active
regions on the visible disk. The remaining spotted regions were either
relatively stable or showed slight decay. No new regions were numbered.
Analysis of all CMEs determined trajectories off the ecliptic plane and
not affecting Earth.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for days one through
three (23-25 Apr), as the majority of the complex spot groups
rotate around the west limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected remain at
nominal levels for days one through three (23-25 Apr).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a
decrease to nominal conditions. Bt was less than 6 nT and Bz was mostly
north. Solar wind speeds decreased over the period from around 525 km/s
at onset to near 450 km/s towards the end. Phi angle remained in a
mostly positive (away) orientation.
.Forecast...
The presence of a negative polarity solar wind feature is expected
mid-day on day one (23 Apr) based on recurrence, and should persist
through days two and three (24-25 Apr). Wind speeds near 550 km/s are
expected with intermittent southward Bz as well.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the forecast period
(23-25 Apr), due to a weak recurrent negative polarity feature in the
solar wind stream.