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04121230forecast_discussion.txt
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2014-04-12
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:Product: 04121230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2035 (S16E68,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced a few C-class events during the period
including a pair of C5 flares. The first occurred at 11/1501 UTC
followed by a long duration C5 at 12/0727 UTC. Associated with the first
C5 was a CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 11/1448 UTC. Due to
the CMEs location on the extreme eastern limb, it appeared that a
majority of the ejecta was not focused towards Earth. Another CME,
associated with the second C5 event, was first visible on LASCO C2
imagery at 12/0748 UTC. As with the earlier CME, it appears a majority
of the ejecta was not on the Earth-Sun line. However, further analysis
is necessary to determine if any shock will affect Earth in the next few
days. It appears Region 2035 has fully rotated on the disk and is now
exhibiting a complex beta-gamma magnetic structure. During the period,
Region 2034 (N13E32, Dao/beta) exhibited some growth and consolidation
in its large leader spot, however the region remained quiet. The
remainder of the spotted regions were quiet and stable.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-Minor) flares for the next three days (12-14 Apr),
particularly from Regions 2034 and 2035.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (12-14 Apr), with a chance for
moderate levels during the latter half of the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE satellite, observed a steady
decline in speeds from about 375 km/s to near 335 km/s. Total field
intensity was steady, ranging between 8 nT to near 10 nT. The Bz
component of the IMF was negative through the period varying between -2
nT to -9 nT. Phi angle data indicated a positive polarity (away) solar
sector through about 12/0300 UTC. Through the end of the period, the
field varied between a positive and a negative (towards) polarity.
.Forecast...
A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is predicted to become
geoeffective beginning around midday on 12 Apr with an increase in solar
wind speed expected along with enhancements in the IMF. The latest
WSA/Enlil ambient model run indicates peak wind speed in the 500 km/s to
550 km/s range with this CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Field
conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels through 12/0000 UTC. Minor
storm periods were then observed from 12/0000 - 0900 UTC. Unsettled
conditions were observed for the last period.
.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are anticipated from midday
on the 12th through 13 Apr in response to the onset of a CH HSS. Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on 14 April as CH HSS effects begin to
subside.