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2008-11-02
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January 3, 2008
Space Weather Prediction Center
3-day Space Weather Predictions
Space Weather Predictions reports contains a 3-day forecast of solar-
geophysical activity including planetary, middle- and high-latitude
geomagnetic field conditions; sunspot region-specific solar flare
probabilities; and general ionospheric conditions (including polar
cap absorption). See sample and description below.
The last 75 3-day Space Weather Predictions (daypre) reports are included in
this directory.
Issue time: Daily after 2200 UTC (usually online at 2210 UTC).
Period Covered: Predicted space weather activity for the next 3 days.
Available:
via SWPC Anonymous FTP server ftp.swpc.noaa.gov
/pub/latest/daypre.txt --- most recent report
/pub/forecasts/daypre --- last 75 reports
via SWPC Web site:
http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt
http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/daypre.html
See http://swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ for other SWPC data and products.
***************************************************************
** Please read the SWPC Disclaimer at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
** before using the forecasts and data in these reports.
***************************************************************
SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic
indices and solar event reports created from preliminary reports.
Preliminary data may contain errors or be revised after further
review. The historical products in this SWPC Warehouse are the
preliminary reports as originally published. SWPC does not encourage
the use of preliminary data for research purposes.
Links to archive sites with final data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/
******************************************************************
Please send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
Report problems to SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov
==========================================================
Sample:
:Product: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-day Space Weather Predictions
#
:Prediction_dates: 2008 Jan 03 2008 Jan 04 2008 Jan 05
:Geomagnetic_A_indices:
A_Fredericksburg 6 8 8
A_Planetary 8 10 10
#
# Predicted 3-hour Middle latitude k-indices
:Pred_Mid_k:
Mid/00-03UT 2 3 3
Mid/03-06UT 2 3 3
Mid/06-09UT 2 2 2
Mid/09-12UT 2 2 2
Mid/12-15UT 2 2 2
Mid/15-18UT 1 1 1
Mid/18-21UT 1 1 1
Mid/21-00UT 1 1 1
#
# Predicted 3-hour High latitude k-indices:
:Pred_High_k:
High/00-03UT 2 2 2
High/03-06UT 1 2 2
High/06-09UT 3 3 3
High/09-12UT 3 3 3
High/12-15UT 2 3 3
High/15-18UT 2 2 2
High/18-21UT 1 2 2
High/21-00UT 1 1 1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active 10 15 15
Mid/Minor_Storm 1 5 5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active 20 25 25
High/Minor_Storm 5 10 10
High/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1
#
# Polar Cap Absorption Forecast
:Polar_cap:
green
#
# Solar
:10cm_flux:
85 87 90
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 10 10 10
Class_X 5 5 5
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2008 Jan 03
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2008 Jan 02
0980 70 10 5 1
==========================================================
Description
Geomagnetic_A_Indices
Predicted daily geomagnetic A-index for Fredericksburg, VA, and
daily planetary A-index, predicted for the next 3 days.
Pred_Mid_k, Pred_Hi_k, Prob_Mid, Prob_High
Probability forecast of geomagnetic conditions for middle and high
latitudes. The values indicate the probability for at least one
3-hour K index, at the indicated level, for each of the next 3 days.
Active: K = 4
Minor storm: K = 5
Major or Severe storm: K >; 6
Polar_cap
PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event.
The PCA forecasts are color coded:
PCAF Green: No active sunspot region on the Sun is likely
to produce a PCA event in the 24 hours.
PCAF Yellow: A sunspot region showing characteristics favorable
for producing a PCA event is present on the Sun.
If an energetic flare occurs in this region, the
probability of a significant PCA event is very high.
PCAF Red: An energetic solar event has occurred or a proton
event has been observed at satellite altitudes, and
there is a high probability that a significant PCA
event will result within the next 24 hours.
In Progress: A significant PCA event is in progress at forecast time.
SOLAR 10cm_flux
Predicted daily values of the 10.7 cm flux.
Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob
Class M and class X: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one
or more class-M or class-X x-ray events for each
of the next 3 days.
Proton flare: Probability forecast of a significant proton
event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at
energies greater than 10 MeV) for each of the
next 3 days.
Region_Prob
Class C, M, and X flare: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one
or more x-ray flares for the day listed.
Proton flare: Probability forecast of a flare that will
cause a significant proton event at satellite
altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater
than 10 MeV).