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:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/0642Z from Region 2059 (S01W07). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 12/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2326Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2300Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (14 May, 15 May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 163
Predicted 13 May-15 May 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 12 May 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 006/007-008/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/35/35