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:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/2353Z from Region 2044 (S18E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
505 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0222Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2222Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 25/25/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 130
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 125/120/118
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 30/05/05