DP Tool Club 12/CD_ASCQ_12_0294.iso/vrac/aids94.zip/AIDSREAD.ME

Text File | 1993-12-24 | 4KB | 68 lines

                       PROGRAM INSTRUCTIONS

     The program AIDS is a mathematical model of the HIV/AIDS
epidemic. It uses a series of arithmetic expressions to describe
the process by which an infectious disease spreads through a
given population pool: some form of contact is required, there is
a transfer term which describes the rate of infection, there is
a period in which the infected may transfer the disease, there is
a mortality rate of the disease, there are variations in the
transfer rate due to age, cultural habits, sex, physical and
social environment, etc.
   Such a model could represent tuberculosis, whooping cough, or,
in this case, AIDS. For application to a particular disease, these
arithmetic expressions must be 'tuned' by using input parameters
which 'fit' that particular disease: transfer ratios, population
pool sizes, length of infectious period, actual mortality rates,
etc.
   If the model is correct in function and the parameters are
true, then the model will 'track' known historical data and
'forecast' the most likely future activity. It also will allow
details of function not otherwise available. For example, there is
no way to measure the number of HIV infected people, but the number
of those diagnosed with AIDS is available. If you know the
mathematical relationship between the two, the number of infected
can then then be easily obtained. The program AIDS does things like
that. Please follow the procedure:
1. On the main menu, select each line in sequence and display the
   information about that line function. Read each display carefully.
   Note that F10 ABOUT THE PROGRAM has two pages.
2. From the main menu, select F1 THE PAST AND FUTURE OF AIDS and go
   to the display by hitting F1 or <return> or left mouse button.
   The year 1993 will be displayed. Starting at the top of the page,
   select each data line in sequence and display the explanation.
   Read each display carefully and associate the explanation with
   the data shown for the year.
3. While still in THE PAST AND FUTURE OF AIDS, select JUMP TO using
   mouse or arrows, activate with <return> or left mouse button,
   enter 1960, then <return>. This will place you on the first page
   of the generated data, when the first infection occured in the
   US. Using pgdn, page forward year by year and watch the growth of
   the disease. During the years 1980 through 1993, compare the data
   generated by the program with the data reported by CDC. During
   the years 1960 through 1985, the data generated is much higher
   than that reported. The knowledge about the disease was sparse
   and slow in coming in those days, with full awareness coming in
   the mid 80s. Continue on into the future and see the ever-
   increasing spread with time, and the final years of utter disaster.
4. Using JUMP TO return to the year 1993. Use MORE DATA to turn to
   the second data page for a more detailed breakdown in the generated
   data. Again select each line item in sequence and read the
   explanatory popups for a full understanding of the terms. This
   completes the study of the data available.
5. Use 'esc' to return to the main menu. Select F3 MODIFY THE
   PARAMETERS and enter the function with <return>, F3, or the left
   mouse button. These are the parameters on which the generated data
   are based. Select each line in sequence and read the explanations
   associated with each line function.
6. This completes the initial instruction. You will have noted by
   this time that the program is interactive. You may change any
   parameter and study its future effect. You may study the growth
   of the epidemic in the various cultural groups: gays, sexually
   liberated heterosexuals and sexually disciplined heterosexuals.