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--- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW --- August 07 to August 16, 1992 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada T0K 2E0 --------- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE ---------------------------------------------------- 10-DAY SOLAR/RADIO/MAGNETIC/AURORAL ACTIVITY OUTLOOK | Solar |HF Propagation +/- CON|SID PROB. Es AU.BKSR DX| Mag| Aurora | |Activty|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|ENH LO MI HI LO MI HI %|K Ap|LO MI HI| --|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------| 07| LO-MOD| G G P P 50 -10 70| 45 NA NA NA 01 30 35 30|3 15|NV LO MO| 08| LO-MOD| G G P P 50 -15 70| 45 NA NA NA 03 35 40 35|4 17|NV LO MO| 09| LO-MOD| G F P P 50 -20 65| 45 NA NA NA 05 40 50 35|5 22|NV MO MO| 10| LO-MOD| G G P P 50 -15 65| 45 NA NA NA 04 35 40 35|4 17|NV LO MO| 11| LO-MOD| G G F F 50 -05 65| 45 NA NA NA 03 25 30 30|3 12|NV NV MO| 12| LO-MOD| G G F F 50 -05 65| 45 NA NA NA 03 15 25 30|3 10|NV NV LO| 13| LO-MOD| G G F F 50 -05 65| 45 NA NA NA 03 10 20 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 14| LO-MOD| G G F F 40 -05 65| 40 NA NA NA 03 10 20 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 15| LOW | G G F F 30 -05 65| 30 NA NA NA 03 10 20 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 16| LOW | G G F F 30 -05 65| 20 NA NA NA 03 10 20 35|2 10|NV NV LO| DEFINITIONS: Date (day only) Possible Magnitude of Solar Flaring (LOW=C-class, MOD=M-class, HIGH=M or X) HF Propagation Conditions for LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar areas (see below) HF Short Wave Fade Probability (in %) HF Maximum Usable Frequency in +/- percent above seasonal normals. HF Prediction CONfidence Level (in %) VHF Sudden Ionospheric ENHancement Probs (in %), weighted for low-mid lats PROBability of "s"poradic E (Es) during the UT day for low, mid and high lats VHF AUroral BacKScatteR Probs (in %) for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes VHF Overall Global DX Potential (in %) - weighted for Low and Middle latitudes Geomagnetic Activity Kp Index (peak value - see below) GeoMAGnetic Activity Ap Index (peak value - see below) AURORAl Activity for LOw, MIddle and HIgh Latitudes (see below) HF Prop. Quality rated as: EG=Extremely Good, VG=Very Good, G=Good, F=Fair, P=Poor, VP=Very Poor, EP=Extremely Poor. Probability of Sporadic E (Es) for the various latitudes is given in percent. Kp Planetary Index rated: 0=V.Quiet, 1=Quiet, 2=Unstld, 3=Active, 4=V.Active, 5=Minor Storm, 6=Major Storm, 7=Maj-Sev Storm, 8=Severe Storm, 9=V.Severe. Ap Planetary Index rated: 0-7=Quiet, 8-16=Unstld, 17-29=Active, 30-49=Minor Storm, 50-99=Major Storm, Severe Storm >=100. Auroral Activity rated: NV=Not Visible, LO=Low, MO=Moderate, HI=High, VH=Very High. PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (07 AUG - 16 AUG) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | *|** | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE |***|***|***|** | | | | | | | NONE | | UNSETTLED |***|***|***|***|***|** | * | * | * | * | NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65% NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. 60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ____________________________________________________________ 48 | M | 46 | M M | 43 | MM M | 41 | MM M M| 38 | MM M M| 36 | MM M M| 34 | MM M M| 31 | MM M M| 29 | M M MM M M| 26 | M M MM M M| 24 | M M A MM A M M| 22 | M AM A MM A M A M| 19 | MAAAM A AMM A A M A M| 17 | MAAAM A A AMM A AA MA A M| 14 | MAAAM A AA AMMAA AAA A MA A M| 12 | MAAAMU A UAA UAMMAA U AAA A MA A U UM| 10 | MAAAMU U AUU UUAA UAMMAA U AAA A UMAUU UA UU UM| 7 |UMAAAMUUU AUUUUUAAUUAMMAAU U AAAUAU UUMAUU UA UUU UM| 5 |UMAAAMUUUUUAUUUUUAAUUAMMAAUUUQQQQQ AAAUAUU UUMAUUUUAQUUUQQUM| 2 |UMAAAMUUUUUAUUUUUAAUUAMMAAUUUQQQQQQAAAUAUUQUUMAUUUUAQUUUQQUM| 0 |UMAAAMUUUUUAUUUUUAAUUAMMAAUUUQQQQQQAAAUAUUQUUMAUUUUAQUUUQQUM| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start Date: Day #159 NOTES: This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary A-index or the Boulder A-index. Graph lines are labelled according to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day. The left- hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day. Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm, J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 180 | | 176 | ** | 172 | *** | 168 | ****** | 164 | ****** | 160 | ******* | 156 | ******** | 152 | ********** | 148 | *********** | 144 | ************ | 140 | ************ | 136 | ***************** | 132 | ***************** | 128 | * * ****************** ***| 124 | **** * ******************* * ****| 120 | ****** * * * ******************** * ****| 116 |*********** ***** ********************** ****| 112 |******************* ********************** ****| 108 |********************************************* *****| 104 |********************************************** *****| 100 |********************************************** * ** ******| 096 |************************************************************| 092 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #161 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX ----------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 146 | | 145 |*** | 144 |***** | 143 |******* | 142 |********* | 141 |************ | 140 |************** | 139 |*************** | 138 |***************** | 137 |****************** | 136 |******************* | 135 |******************** | 134 |********************** *** | 133 |************************ ******* | 132 |****************************************** | 131 |******************************************* | 130 |********************************************* | 129 |********************************************** | 128 |*********************************************** | 127 |************************************************** | 126 |**************************************************** | 125 |******************************************************** | 124 |************************************************************| 123 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #161 NOTES: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from Ottawa). High solar flux levels denote higher levels of activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun. The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS --------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 224 | | 215 | * | 206 | * | 197 | ** | 188 | ** *** | 179 | ** **** | 170 | *** **** | 161 | *** ***** | 152 | * ********** | 143 | * ********** ** | 134 | * ********** ****| 125 | * ** * ************** ****| 116 |* * ** * * * ************** ****| 107 |******* * * * *** *************** ******| 098 |************ * * **** **************** ******| 089 |************* *** **** **************** * ******| 080 |******************* ************************** * ******| 071 |******************* *************************** * * ******| 062 |******************* *************************** ***********| 053 |************************************************ ***********| 044 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #161 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX ----------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 146 | | 145 |*** | 144 |***** | 143 |******* | 142 |********* | 141 |************ | 140 |************** | 139 |*************** | 138 |***************** | 137 |****************** | 136 |******************* | 135 |******************** | 134 |********************** *** | 133 |************************ ******* | 132 |****************************************** | 131 |******************************************* | 130 |********************************************* | 129 |********************************************** | 128 |*********************************************** | 127 |************************************************** | 126 |**************************************************** | 125 |******************************************************** | 124 |************************************************************| 123 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #161 NOTES: The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 AUG - 16 AUG) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | FAIR | **| * | * | **| **|***|***|***|***|***| ------- | POOR |* |* *|* *|* |* | | | | | | 65% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| LEVEL | FAIR |* |* |* | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 75% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 30 deg. S. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (07 AUG - 16 AUG) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | NOT | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% | | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% | | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% | | N O T P R E S E N T L Y | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | A V A I L A B L E | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | | *|* *|* | | | | | | | 40%| |*|*| | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*| | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | NOT | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% | | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% | | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% | | N O T P R E S E N T L Y | | 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | 60% | | | A V A I L A B L E | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * |***|***| * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| |*|*|*| | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | NOT | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |AVAILABLE |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% | | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% | | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% | | N O T P R E S E N T L Y | | 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | 60% | | | A V A I L A B L E | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and related data and forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (07 AUG - 16 AUG) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | **|***|***| * | | | | | | | 65% | LOW |***|***|***|***|***| * | * | * | * | * | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | LOW | * | * | * | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008. via AV-Sync (404) 320-6202.