Obviously conference tournaments will have a major influence on the selection committee. But for now, it's fun to speculate about teams on the bubble.
In figuring out the 64-team field, remember there are 30 automatic berths and 34 at-large invitations. With that in mind, there are 19 conferences likely to receive just one berth: winners of the Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, Mid-Continent, MEAC, Midwestern, NAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt and WCC.
With Wisconsin-Green Bay (Midwestern), Santa Clara (WCC) and Eastern Michigan (Mid-American) enjoying outstanding seasons, those two teams could earn at-large berths if they fail to win their respective league tournaments. The TAAC is an interesting study as College of Charleston is not participating in the league tournament, though the Cougars are eligible for an at-large berth.
That leaves 45 spots up for grabs. Several schools are locks to get in, win or lose in their conference tournament: for example, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova and Syracuse in the Big East.
Our locks (by conference):
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Duke
Atlantic 10: Massachusetts, Virginia Tech, George
Washington
Big East: Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse
Big Eight: Kansas, Iowa State
Big Ten: Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana
Conference USA: Cincinnati, Memphis, Louisville, Marquette
MVC: Bradley
Pac-10: UCLA, Arizona
SEC: Kentucky, Mississippi State
SWC: Texas Tech
WAC: Utah
On the bubble
It's time to look at the teams on the bubble, by conference (overall record is followed by league mark in parentheses):
Maryland (15-11, 7-8)
Key wins
North Carolina (split), George Washington, Georgia Tech
(split), Missouri.
Key losses
Kentucky, Massachusetts, Wake Forest, Duke (twice), UCLA,
Clemson (split)
Remaining games
March 4-Florida State.
Recent streak
6-4 in last 10 games.
Analysis
The Terps must beat Florida State, plus the first game of
the ACC tourney to have any shot at the big dance. Maryland
may need two wins in the league event.
Clemson (17-8, 7-8)
Key wins
North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Maryland.
Key losses
North Carolina (twice), Maryland, Florida State,
NC State, Duke.
Remaining games
March 3-At Georgia Tech.
Recent streak
6-8 in last 14 games.
Analysis
The big win over N.C. State, coupled with Maryland's loss to Duke, puts the Tigers in the driver's seat for the fifth ACC berth.
Temple (17-11, 12-4)
Key wins
Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Virginia Tech.
Key losses
Georgetown, Massachusetts (twice), Wisconsin, Cincinnati,
Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane, George Washington, Rhode Island.
Remaining games
March 6-Atlantic 10 tournament
Recent streak
6-2 in last 8 games.
Analysis
The late spurt, coupled with the strong nonleague schedule
give Temple a good shot at a berth. The Atlantic 10 has
been strong enough to merit four bids this season.
If it's a close call, the tough schedule will pay dividends
in the eyes of the tournament selection committee. Also,
the Owls have a great track record in their conference
tournament, so a couple of additional wins are likely.
Providence (16-10, 9-9)
Key wins
Miami (split), Georgetown, Boston College (split),
Wisconsin
Key losses
Syracuse (twice), Connecticut (twice), Villanova, Texas,
Seton Hall (twice).
Remaining games
March 6-Big East tournament
Recent streak
6-3 in last 9 games.
Analysis
The Friars suffered a blow by losing at Miami, perhaps
offsetting the recent win over Georgetown. Providence needs
a win in the Big East tournament opener or its NIT time.
Boston College (16-9, 9-8)
Key wins
Louisville, Vandy, Providence
Key losses
Providence, West Virginia, UMass, UConn, Georgetown (twice), Villanova (twice)
Remaining games
March 3-Rutgers.
Recent streak
4-6 in last 10 games
Analysis
The Eagles have had a nice season, but really, who have they
beaten? The blowout loss to Big East doormat West Virginia in Chestnut
Hill could be an eye-opener for the selection committee.
Kansas State (16-9, 7-6)
Key wins
Oklahoma, Bradley, California, Iowa State (twice), Missouri.
Key losses
Illinois, Washington, Michigan State, Missouri, Kansas.
Remaining games
March 3-At Nebraska.
Recent streak
3-5 in last eight games.
Analysis
The win over Iowa State makes Kansas State the third shot in the Big Eight. There's still work to be done.
Missouri (16-12, 6-7)
Key wins
Kansas, George Washington, Oklahoma.
Key losses
Arkansas, Illinois, NC State, Iowa State (twice), Maryland,
Kansas State.
Remaining games
March 3-Oklahoma State.
Recent streak
4-7 in last 11 games.
Analysis
Losing at Kansas State spells trouble and the Tigers'
national TV humiliation at Maryland also hurts badly. But
the most crushing blow was Saturday's home loss to
Iowa State.
Oklahoma (16-11, 7-6)
Key wins
Kansas State, Drexel, Texas, Missouri.
Key losses
Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Purdue, Iowa State (twice),
Mississippi State, Missouri.
Remaining games
March 8-Big Eight tournament
Recent streak
7-3 in last 10 games
Analysis
Kelvin Sampson's team scored a major win over Kansas. One
win in the Big Eight tourney would lock up a bid, if the
victory over the Jayhawks didn't.
Oklahoma State (16-9, 6-7)
Key wins
Oklahoma, Temple, Michigan State, Kansas State, Iowa State.
Key losses
Kansas (twice), Tulsa, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri.
Remaining games
March 3-At Missouri
Recent streak
6-3 in last nine games
Analysis
The Cowboys are back from the dead. The impressive win over Oklahoma shows this team means business. With a few more
wins, the Cowboys make the Tournament. The Big Eight berths
will come down to the first-round results of the league
tournament.
Illinois (17-10, 6-9)
Key wins
Iowa (split), Duke, Kansas State, Missouri, California, NC
State, Purdue (split).
Key losses
Syracuse, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana (twice),
Wisconsin, Penn State.
Remaining games
March 3-Michigan, March 6-At Michigan State, March
9-Minnesota.
Recent streak
6-4 in last 10 games.
Analysis
The loss to Indiana hurt. The Illini has to win two of its
last three to have a shot. Will the tournament committee
give Lou Henson a break in his final season?
Minnesota (16-12, 8-8)
Key wins
Penn State, Nebraska, Illinois, at Michigan State, Wisconsin.
Key losses
At Cincinnati, California, Clemson, Penn State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan.
Remaining games
March 6-Iowa, March 9-at Illinois
Recent streak
5-2 in last seven games.
Analysis
The win over Penn State notwithstanding, the Golden Gophers still probably need to win out.
Tulane (18-8, 9-5)
Key wins
Temple, Florida State, Louisville, Marquette.
Key losses
North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, UAB, Cincinnati.
Remaining games
Conference USA Tournament
Recent streak
7-2 in last nine games.
Analysis
It all comes down to how many Conference USA gets into the tournament. The fact Conference USA doesn't get an automatic bid hurts because Cincinnati, Memphis and
Louisville are probably in. This league deserves at least
four berths, maybe even five. Perry Clark's team will get
in if they keep up the current pace.
Miami (20-6, 12-6)
Key wins
Eastern Michigan, Xavier, Long Beach State.
Key losses
Ohio, Eastern Michigan.
Remaining games
MAC Tournament.
Recent streak
8-4 in 12 games.
Analysis
The MAC has gotten two teams in before. And Miami is
the same team that beat Arizona last season in the first-round of the Tournament. Still, Miami probably needs to make it to the finals of the conference tournament.
Tulsa (19-7, 12-6)
Key wins
Temple, Oklahoma State, Western Kentucky.
Key losses
Illinois State (twice), Bradley (twice), Creighton.
Remaining games
March 2-4--MVC tournament.
Recent streak
10-4 in last 14 games.
Analysis
Will the Missouri Valley get two teams into the field of
64? It has happened in the past, but dropping a pair to
Illinois State and to Bradley, plus a loss against a
mediocre Creighton team doesn't present a very strong
argument.
Stanford (17-7, 10-5)
Key wins
Washington, UCLA, Arizona, California, South Carolina.
Key losses
North Carolina, Washington, Oregon, Washington State.
Remaining games
March 3-At California, March 7-At Arizona, March 9-At Arizona State.
Recent streak
7-2 last 9 games.
Analysis
The Cardinal probably need one more win to be safe.
Washington (15-9, 8-7)
Key wins
Stanford, Arizona, California, Kansas State.
Key losses
Stanford, Michigan, Arizona State, UCLA, California.
Remaining games
March 3-Arizona, March 6-At UCLA, March 9-At USC.
Recent streak
2-5 in last seven games.
Analysis
A rugged schedule down the stretch makes Washington a
question mark at this point. The Huskies have clinched a
winning record for the first time in the 1990s, but that's
not enough yet.
California (16-8, 10-5)
Key wins
Arizona, Minnesota, Washington.
Key losses
UCLA (twice), Cincinnati, Kansas State, Illinois, Oregon.
Remaining games
March 3-Stanford, March 7-At Arizona State, March 9-At Arizona.
Recent streak
5-4 in last 9 games.
Analysis
Will the Pac-10 get five teams in? California doesn't have
many quality wins, but a sweep of Arizona will make the Golden Bears tough to keep out.
Alabama (16-10, 9-7)
Key wins
Auburn (twice), Tulane, Vanderbilt, Arkansas,
Mississippi State
Key losses
St. Peter's, Bucknell, Syracuse, Kentucky, Arkansas,
Mississippi State
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
6-4 in last 10 games.
Analysis
The win over Arkansas has the Tide back in the picture.
South Carolina (16-10, 8-8)
Key wins
Tulane, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia.
Key losses
Kentucky (twice), Stanford, Clemson, Arkansas, Auburn,
Vandy, Mississippi, Georgia.
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
5-5 in last 10 games.
Analysis
Need a strong showing in the SEC Tournament.
Vanderbilt (17-12, 7-9)
Key wins
Mississippi State, UCLA, Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina.
Key losses
North Carolina, Boston College, Kentucky, Alabama, South
Carolina, Tennessee.
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
4-5 in last nine games.
Analysis
Need at least two victories in the SEC Tourney.
Georgia (18-8, 9-7)
Key wins
South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Arkansas.
Key losses
Kentucky (twice), South Carolina, North Carolina, Auburn,
Vanderbilt, Mississippi State.
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
8-2 in last 10 games.
Analysis
Almost a given.
Arkansas (17-11, 9-7)
Key wins
South Carolina, Missouri, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State.
Key losses
Alabama, Arizona, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Auburn,
Vanderbilt, Memphis, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Georgia.
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
5-5 in last 10 games.
Analysis
The surprising Razorbacks are freefalling. The absence of Jesse Pate and Sunday Adebayo is taking its toll. The Hogs now need at least one win in the SEC Tournament.
Auburn (18-11, 6-10)
Key wins
Louisville, Arkansas, Georgia.
Key losses
Kentucky, UAB, Alabama (twice), Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, LSU.
Remaining games
SEC Tournament
Recent streak
3-8 in last 11 games.
Analysis
The Tigers recent skid spells trouble for Cliff Ellis's
team. Worse still, that SEC record may be too much to overcome.
Texas (18-8, 10-4)
Key wins
North Carolina, Providence.
Key losses
Houston, Utah, Louisville, Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma, Nebraska.
Remaining games
SWC Tournament.
Recent streak
10-4 in last 14 games.
Analysis
The loss at Houston raises more doubt about the Longhorns.
Houston (17-9, 11-3)
Key wins
Memphis, Texas (split)
Key losses
Texas Tech (twice), Arizona, USC, Tennessee, Mississippi
Recent streak
9-2 in last 11 games
Analysis
There were a few bad early-season losses before Tim Moore
came back to be a factor. The Cougars have closed well and
merit consideration, though there are few solid wins. The
close loss to Arizona says something about this team, as
does the upset over Memphis.
College of Charleston (24-3, 15-1)
Key wins
Richmond.
Key losses
Connecticut, Syracuse, Southeast Louisiana.
Remaining games
Regular season completed.
Recent streak
22-1 in last 23.
Analysis
It's sit and wait time. You'd be hard-pressed to find quality wins, yet Charleston
has been invited before based on its solid record. Losing at Southeast
Louisiana at the end of the season might be a killer.
New Mexico (24-4, 14-4)
Key wins
BYU (twice), Arizona State.
Key losses
Utah (twice), Fresno State.
Remaining games
WAC Tournament
Recent streak
Won last seven games
Analysis
How many WAC teams will get in? The Lobos have been left
out after winning 20 before, but barring a first-round exit in the WAC Tournament, they should be in.
Fresno State (19-9, 13-5)
Key wins
Utah (twice), Oregon.
Key losses
New Mexico, Santa Clara, BYU, Pacific, Weber State, Hawaii.
Remaining games
WAC Tournament
Recent streak
7-2 in last 9.
Analysis
The sweep over the Top 10 Utes looks huge, but the verdict may hinge upon how far the Bulldogs go in the WAC Tournament.
