by Steven V. Roberts; Katia Hetter; Jim Impoco; Scott Minerbrook


Mary Louise Julian, a divorced mother of seven in Youngstown, Ohio, speaks for American voters this fall. To make ends meet, she sometimes goes three months without a day off from her job as a personnel manager for the Air Force. When her older teenagers find work, each one pays a different bill: the phone, the gas, the electric. About politicians in Washington she says: "They live in a different world there. They need to get out and talk to more people, maybe listen to them. In a normal American home, they have no idea what's going on." 

        Voters are so angry this year that they seem poised to throw out incumbents and throw over the system. Democrats could lose control of both the House and the Senate, but even if they don't, President Clinton will certainly face a more conservative and less friendly Congress next year. The taproot of this anger is the distance between Julian's kitchen table and Capitol Hill. In Washington, leaders point to national statistics and say the economy is improving: 4.6 million jobs created in two years, lowest unemployment rate in four years, minimal inflation. But for many families, this recovery has simply not shown up in their lives and budgets. They complain that they are working harder and earning less. In a new U.S. News poll, only 36 percent of respondents said the economy is improving; 57 percent said it is stagnating or declining. Their gloom is reinforced by a skepticism toward all government claims and promises. Realtor Bonnie Varley in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., has heard the talk of better times from the Clinton administration but snaps: "Where's the proof?" 

        Family values. The money crunch means many parents have to take extra jobs and extra shifts. Family cohesion is down, stress and guilt are up. Adults are not around to protect kids from crime in the neighborhood, violence on television or sex in the basement. Democratic consultant Ann Lewis summed it up last week during a debate produced by U.S. News and broadcast on CNBC: "Being middle class used to mean you were comfortable. Today, being middle class means you're scared. Families are squeezed, not just for money but for time. And time is what you use to build a family with." 

        The stormy forecast for Democrats can be blamed partly on Bill Clinton and the widespread belief that he lacks the character to be a good president (story, Page 37). But the White House and its congressional allies are also victims of their own campaign. Two years ago, they made promises and raised expectations that life would improve. Says a senior Democratic strategist on the West Coast: "None of that has happened. So people have gone from being very high to being very low -- it's almost manic-depressive." 

        Democrats also inherited an underlying set of problems that were plaguing the economy long before Clinton's election: sluggish incomes, global competition, corporate downsizing, defense cutbacks. These trends helped defeat George Bush two years ago, and they are undermining the Democrats today. Says Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who worked with Democrat Celinda Lake on the U.S. News survey: "The day Clinton was elected, he became the enemy." 

        Late polls indicate that the anti-incumbent flood might be cresting. Many Republican governors, from Massachusetts to Michigan, are cruising toward re-election. And even some senior Democrats, like Sen. Edward Kennedy, are pulling ahead after early scares. But even if the political upheaval is not quite so jarring as once predicted, the deep-running sources of voter anger will continue to demand attention. 

        Some Democrats say their real problem is public relations. "There's a lot of good news out there," said Sen. John Breaux in the U.S. News debate. "We're lousy communicators." 

        But there's a lot of bad news out there, too. Perhaps the most important political fact of 1994 was contained in a recent report from the Census Bureau: The real income of a typical household declined in 1993 by about $300. Particularly hard hit are what Labor Secretary Robert Reich calls the "anxious class," workers who lack the education and skills to compete for the high-tech jobs now being created. Reich points out that 15 years ago, a college-educated male worker made 49 percent more than a worker with only a high school diploma. That gap has now ballooned to 83 percent. Working with data on men ages 25 to 34, economics Prof. Frank Levy of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that in 1979, a 30-year-old man with a high school diploma earned about $27,074 in 1992 dollars; in 1992, a 30-year-old man with a high school diploma earned about $20,016. 

        The anxious class is everywhere. Marc Woodyard's industrial supply business in Pittsburg, Calif., has been decimated by base closings in the area, and he's laid off 11 workers in two years: "We're working 14-hour days and seven days a week just to break even." In Chicopee, Mass., Dennis Manley's wife is working fewer hours as a nursing home cook, and his brother-in-law has been forced to work nights to keep his job as a meatcutter: "This whole country can't keep running on a part-time work force." Even college graduates like Drew Porter, a 24-year-old insurance broker in Montgomery, Ala., are not immune: "Every one of my friends I grew up with -- all college graduates -- still hasn't found a decent job. They're waiting tables, doing part-time stuff. That just shouldn't be." 

        Fading hopes. More than two thirds of those surveyed by U.S. News worry that their kids will not live as well as they do, and 57 percent say the American dream is out of reach for most families -- a major shift from our historic optimism. In Youngstown, Al Meranzo, a retired truck driver, says his son and son-in-law were both laid off: "I feel very bad for my grandchildren. I don't see what the hell they have to look forward to." These economic views relate directly to political views: Those who say the country is rebounding are more likely to trust Democrats, while those who see stagnation tend to prefer Republicans. 

        To many families, time is as valuable as money. Lunch hour at Rowney's restaurant in Youngstown echoes with complaints. Jeannie Hepfner took a job on the 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. shift at a pharmaceutical company so she could be home when her kids got up. She slept about three hours a day for three years until her health collapsed. Hepfner's mother, Loretta Guyer, went to work for the first time in her 50s when her husband died and left no pension. "It's getting real tough to keep your job," notes Guyer, a cleaning woman in the public schools. "Don't screw up." At another table, a woman says her husband gets up every day at 4:15 so he can drive 80 miles to his accountant's job in Cleveland -- the only one he can find. Says Mary Louise Julian: "I travel a lot with my job, and my children let themselves in at night. It's just not the way I want to bring up my children. I'm not really the '90s lady, but I have to be, because I have to work." 

        These parents worry constantly. They can't supervise their children's homework, or their television watching, or their friends. But their biggest concern is safety. Asked to name the nation's No. 1 problem, 34 percent said crime; nothing else came close. Al Meranzo and his wife take care of their two grandsons every day, mainly because their daughter-in-law is so afraid of entrusting them to strangers: "You read about these day care centers, these children being molested." Women say they don't stop for red lights in downtown Youngstown because they're afraid of being assaulted. 

        Special interests. In the face of these problems, many voters say, politicians are not listening and not helping. Seventy percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job. Four out of five say government benefits special interests, not the people, and cares too much about foreign countries while ignoring needs at home. Sums up pollster Lake: "They think no matter who they send here, until they change this place or torch this place, nothing better will happen." 

        As Democratic adviser Ray Strother puts it: "They think when you get to Washington you lose the ability to think clearly." Dealing with government can be endlessly irritating. Says Samuel Popkin, a political scientist who wrote The Reasoning Voter: "Why should you have to leave work to buy stamps or get a driver's license or see your kid's teacher?" Republican pollster Vince Breglio says that when government does something "berserk" like regulating power mowers, average people "shake their head and say, `What's going on?'" And there is the persistent belief that government is helping someone else -- Haitians, immigrants, welfare recipients -- and not ordinary, tax-paying voters. 

        Tales of government corruption have always been popular, but they now seem to dominate news coverage of Washington. The check- bouncing scandal, congressional junkets, the indictment of Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski -- they've all accentuated the idea that Congressis out of touch and out of control.As political strategist Tony Podesta notes: "People get indicted on the`Today' show, tried on CNN and sentenced on `Nightline.'" The result is the view expressed by Sandra Ross, wife of an electrician in Springfield, Mass.: "People start out fine when they go into politics, but I truly believe they get corrupt." 

        Congress's reputation has been further soiled by the sort of partisan bickering that brought legislative action to a standstill last month. "They fight like children," said Fred Noday Sr., a retired union official in Youngstown. 

        Washington has provided its enemies with a lot of ammunition, but the ills of the capital have been amplified and exaggerated by what Democratic strategist Bob Shrum describes as "the grievance network," a wide-ranging system of radio talk shows, fax machines and computer bulletin boards that are constantly exploiting the antipolitician mood. Political consultant Cathy Allen in Seattle notes that "anger has become entertainment," the main source of material for talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh and political critics like Ross Perot, who has just started his own radio show. 

        As a result, the political world has been "institutionalizing cynicism and alienation," says poll taker Bill Hamilton. A vicious cycle has taken over: Voters are unhappy with Washington, candidates run by trashing the institution they want to join, confidence in government spirals downward. "That's a scary feeling," says Hamilton. And it means that whoever wins the fall elections will have to govern a country that believes its leaders "have no idea what's going on" in the homes and lives of ordinary people.


HAS YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS PERFORMED HIS OR HER JOB WELL ENOUGH TO DESERVE RE-ELECTION, OR IS IT TIME TO GIVE A NEW PERSON A CHANCE?
DESERVES RE-ELECTION      37 percent
NEW PERSON A CHANCE      45 percent

HAS BILL CLINTON PERFORMED HIS JOB AS PRESIDENT WELL ENOUGH TO DESERVE RE-ELECTION, OR DO YOU THINK IT'S TIME TO GIVE A NEW PERSON A CHANCE?
DESERVES RE-ELECTION      34 percent
NEW PERSON A CHANCE      52 percent

MIDDLE- CLASS FAMILIES CAN'T MAKE ENDS MEET. 
AGREE                                  75 percent
DISAGREE                            23 percent
UNSURE                                2 percent

GOVERNMENT IS RUN FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE FEW AND SPECIAL INTERESTS.
AGREE                                  80 percent 
DISAGREE                            18 percent

WE NEED MORE MORAL LEADERSHIP BECAUSE FAMILY VALUES ARE DECLINING. 
AGREE                                  80 percent
DISAGREE                            17 percent


A 1994 ELECTION GUIDE On November 8, voters will choose 35 U.S. senators, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 36 state governors, including those in the nation's eight most populous states -- California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan. Republicans are hoping discontent with President Clinton, Congress and the political establishment will produce historic gains for them.

HOUSE. A 40-seat gain would give Republicans control for first time in 40 years. Thirty-one Democrats are retiring, almost half in the South, where redistricting has created largely white, heavily Republican districts. The GOP also aims at big gains on the West Coast, with House Speaker Tom Foley facing a stern challenge in eastern Washington. If the GOP wins tge House, Newt Gingrich will become speaker, heading a very conservative and confrontational leadership team.

SENATE. Republicans need a net gain of seven seats to win a majority for first time since 1986. The key is open seats: Democrats are retiring in six states and all could go Republican, but of three Republican seats, only Minnesota's is in danger. Senior Democrats Wofford of Pennsylvania and Sasser of Tennessee are struggling, but Kennedy of Massachusetts is extending his lead in late polls. If Republicans win, Bob Dole is the likely Senate leader, and Jesse Helms will head the Foreign Relations Committee.

GOVERNORS. Democrats in New York, Florida and Texas all face tough fights, but Republicans in Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts and Illinois are easy winners. Closest race: open seat in Pennsylvania between Republican Tom Ridge and Democrat Mark Singel. If all tight races break for the GOP, the largest state house in Democratic hands will be North Carolina's, giving the Republican presidential candidate a big boost in 1996.

House:                              256 D,    178 R,    1 Indep. 
Senate:                                56 D,       44 R 
Governors:                         29 D,       19 R,    2 Indep.

STATE                         GOV                 SENATE              HOUSE (Open seats)
ALABAMA                     D(E)                   2D                         4D,3R 
ALASKA                         I(O)                   2R                            1R 
ARIZONA                      R(E)               D(O),R                 3D,3R (1D, 1R)
ARKANSAS                    D(E)                  2D                          2D,2R 
CALIFORNIA                 R(E)               D,D(E)                 30D,22R (1D,2R)
COLORADO                  D(E)                  D,R                          2D,4R
CONNECTICUT             I(O)                D,D(E)                      3D,3R
DELAWARE                   D                     D,R(E)                         1R
FLORIDA                      D(E)                D,R(E)                 10D,13R (2D,1R)
GEORGIA                     D(E)                  D,R                        7D,4R (1D)
HAWAII                        D(O)                D,D(E)                         2D
IDAHO                         D(O)                   2R                            1D,1R
ILLINOIS                      R(E)                   2D                       12D,8R (1D,1R)
INDIANA                      D                      R,R(E)                       7D,3R (1D)
IOWA                           R(E)                   D,R                          1D,4R (1R)
KANSAS                       D(O)                   2R                            2D,2R (1D)
KENTUCKY                  D                        D,R                           3D,3R (1D) 
LOUISIANA                  D                          2D                           4D,3R 
MAINE                         R(O)                D(O),R                        1D,1R (1D,1R) 
MARYLAND                 D(O)                 D,D(E)                       4D,4R (1R) 
MASSACHUSETTS         R(E)                D,D(E)                        8D,2R 
MICHIGAN                   R(E)                 D,D(O)                      10D,6R (2D) 
MINNESOTA                R(E)                  D,R(O)                       6D,2R (1D,1R) 
MISSISSIPPI                R                        R,R(E)                       5D    (1D) 
MISSOURI                   D                        R,R(O)                       6D,3R (1D) 
MONTANA                   R                        D,R(E)                        1D 
NEBRASKA                   D(E)                  D,D(E)                        1D,2R 
NEVADA                       D(E)                  D,D(E)                        1D,1R 
NEW HAMPSHIRE        R(E)                     2R                            1D,1R 
NEW JERSEY                R                        D,D(E)                        7D,6R (1D,1R) 
NEW MEXICO              D(E)                   D(E),R                        1D,2R 
NEW YORK                  D(E)                   D(E),R                       18D,13R (2R) 
NORTH CAROLINA      D                           2R                            8D,4R (2D,1R) 
NORTH DAKOTA         R                         D,D(E)                        1D 
OHIO                          R(E)                    D,D(O)                       10D,9R (1D) 
OKLAHOMA                D(O)                   D(O),R                        3D,3R (2D,1R) 
OREGON                    D(O)                      2R                             4D,1R (1D,1R) 
PENNSYLVANIA          D(O)                    D(E),R                      11D,10R (2D,2R) 
RHODE ISLAND          D(O)                     D,R(E)                        1D,1R (1R) 
SOUTH CAROLINA      R(O)                      D,R                             3D,3R (1D,1R) 
SOUTH DAKOTA         R(O)                      D,R                             1D 
TENNESSEE                D(O)                   D(E),D(O)                    6D,3R (2D,1R) 
TEXAS                         D(E)                    R,R(E)                        21D,9R (3D) 
UTAH                            R                        R,R(E)                          2D,1R 
VERMONT                  D(E)                    D,R(E)                            1 ind 
VIRGINIA                      R                        D(E),R                           7D,4R 
WASHINGTON              D                        D,R(E)                         8D,1R (1D) 
WEST VIRGINIA            D                        D,D(E)                             3D 
WISCONSIN                 R(E)                     D,D(E)                            4D,5R 
WYOMING                  D(O)                     R,R(O)                         1R (1R)


English WOMAN TROUBLE. At least 10 female Democrats in House are facing tough re-election fights. Typical is freshman Karan English, defending seat against Republican sportscaster J.D. Hayworth in Arizona's sixth district around Flagstaff.

Christensen RADICAL RIGHT. Organizing power of fundamentalist Christian churches could make big difference in close races with low turnout. Three-term Democrat Peter Hoagland, always a GOP target, faces Jon Christensen's bus brigades in Omaha, Nebraska.

Roth GOP INCUMBENT. To hold the Senate, Democrats probably have to pick off one or two Republican incumbents. Best shot is in Delaware, where 73-year-old Bill Roth -- who once favored mandatory retirement at 65 -- faces state Attorney General Charles Overby.

McCurdy CLINTON BAGGAGE. Clinton is dragging down many Democrats in Southern and border states. Dave McCurdy, running for open Senate seat in Oklahoma, is particularly eager to separate himself from Clinton -- an old friend whom he nominated at 1992 Democratic Convention.

Moore SOUTHERN DISCOMFORT. With long-time Democratic incumbents abandoning a raft of Southern seats, the party is scrambling to save a few. One Democrat with a reasonable chance is Richard Moore, running against Republican David Funderburk in the Durham, North Carolina district now represented by Tim Valentine.

Sasser VETERANS BENEFITS. Some incumbents are still hitting a traditional note: they deserve re-election because seniority and leverage brings benefits back home. Senate budget committee chairman Jim Sasser -- who is also a candidate for Democratic leader -- making this point in Tennessee.

York DUELLING UPSETS. Most incumbents survived primary challenges, but State Senator Myrth York ousted sitting governor Bruce Sundlun. Now she faces tight race against Republican Lincoln Almond, a surprise victor over Rep. Ron Machtley in the GOP primary.

Kennedy LONG TIMER. While most GOP governors are safe, Iowa's Terry Branstad has served three terms and lost some of his appeal. He's getting a strong challenge from Democrat Bonnie Campbell, whose job as attorney general shields her from charge women are soft on crime.

Branstad MASS APPEAL. Senator Ted Kennedy is the most famous Massachusetts incumbent facing a tough race. But in a state where Clinton remains popular the most endangered office holders are actually two Republican House members, Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen.

USN&WR -- Basic data: The World Almanac, Congressional Quarterly, USN&WR reporting