Shadieva, R.G. (Administration of Weather Modification of Glavgidromet of the Republic of Uzbekistan)
The results of techniques for the forecasting of hail and following liquid precipitation are present. The solution of problem was made in application to the operational was made in application to the operational forecasting scheme 12, 24 h in advance using two methods are presented. 1. Firstly the spatial localization of fields of precipitation with different intensity. 2. At the second step, in the framework of one dimensional microphysical model of the threephase convective cloud at the stage of maximum evolution the calculation of prognostic characteristics of precipitation, hail size and amount of the following liquid precipitation is made.
The first part of this paper shows that there is the one- values of temperature gradients of the wet thermometer G= Tc/ Z near the surface at the starting moment of time and future precipitation field computed by the direction of leading flow at the configuration of fields of precipitation with different intensity coincides with configuration of critical gradients. This relationship is noted in 90-95% of cases with 12 h interval. With 24 h interval the precipitation is observed in 82-85%. The advantage of this technique is in possibility of detalized spatial localization of precipitation zones with different intensity.
In the 2-nd part of the paper within the framework of one- dimensional microphysical model of three-phase convective cloud the technique is proposed for the calculation of quantitative characteristics of precipitation. The main microphysical processes such as distribution of the vertical updroughts velocity, the rate of the ice crystals germination, melting in the under cloud lyer, etc., re parametrized. The resulting parameters are the hail size and amount of liquid precipitation. This technique is put into operational practice. The reliability of forecasts is 87-93%.