Mokssit, Abadallah (CNCRM Chief, Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale, Morocco)
The meteorological situation Morocco has experienced on August 17th, 1995 remains a noteworthy event. In fact, floods have devastated the 'OURIKA' region (district of Marrakech). More than 230 people have died. Devastating economic losses have accompained this toll. Direct property damage is conservatively set at 80 Million DH. In this paper, is laid out the synoptic description of the strong storm system that caused these floods, and we analyze the Models capabilities to predict the event as well. As for the synoptic situation, the Z500 and Z700 will be analized, together with the surface pressure field. A full description of that storm mecanisms is also oulined. This analysis is complemented by the satellite imagery.
Speaking of the forecast models capabilities, we analyze the output of ARPEGE, a French Numerical Model, along with those forecasts issued by Aladin-Maroc, a fine-mesh (16.5 km, 27 levels) Limited Area Model, in order to assess the predictability of that devastating situation. The paper draws a comprehensive comparison between the models. The Limited Area Model has better simulated the situation and predicted the rainfall amount as well. This situation can be much better predicted using an improved version taking into account the Moroccan meteorological and geographical conditions.