Let me begin by saying that I successfully installed OS/2 Warp 4 FixPak 8 (US/English version) without any problems. I better get use to installing these FixPaks since I do not believe we will ever see another major release of OS/2 Warp as a "fat-client." As I mentioned in last month's editorial, changes are underfoot at IBM to move the company closer to Java and further away from OS/2. To illustrate, consider the following excerpts of an e-mail sent to David Graham on August 31st from Jorge Munoz of IBM's Network Computing Software Division:
Our top priority is our customers - protecting their IBM investments and leveraging those investments to build a network computing environment for the future. Network computing offers long term benefits including the potential of reducing the total cost of computing. Our second priority is IBM's network computing strategy: e-business and 100% pure Java. OS/2 allows our customers to transition to network computing while continuing to support legacy applications. The rationale behind these priorities is simple. Most of IBM's largest global customers are OS/2 customers. Our overriding objective is to ensure their overall customer satisfaction and keep them as loyal IBM customers. To this end, we are recommending the following to our customers:
As I review such correspondence and attend IBM seminars, it is becoming vividly clear to me: the days of OS/2 are numbered (at least, the "fat-client" version we all know and love). Perhaps only two more years (to get us through the year 2000). IBM is grudgingly telling its customers that there will not be another major release (e.g. Warp 5), only FixPaks and CSDs.
IBM's long-term strategy is to replace all of its operating systems with pure Java operating systems (a la JavaOS for Business recently announced by Sun and IBM). This includes OS/2 as a "fat-client" and WorkSpace On-Demand as a "thin-client."
No matter what we think about the virtues of OS/2 or other IBM operating systems, the reality is that IBM needs to migrate its customers to Java or suffer severe consequences. Java represents IBM's last chance to unseat Microsoft's dominance of the PC market and potential takeover of corporate computing. The battle line is drawn, and it comes in the form of Java.
OS/2 served IBM well and hopefully taught them a valuable lesson about developing and marketing software. They also used it as the technological guinea pig for network computing. The only long-term product plans for OS/2 is in the area of server software, such as Aurora, the next release of OS/2 Warp Server, which is playing well with the press.
As OS/2 goes, so goes OS/2 user groups
OS/2 user groups have been feeling the effects of IBM's lack of OS/2 marketing for some time now. Membership and attendance at user group meetings have suffered radically. If I am correct that OS/2 is to be transitioned to Java it seems rather obvious to me that now is the time to transition OS/2 user groups to Java as well. This has already started to happen; in Columbus, Ohio, the Central Ohio OS/2 Users Group has already re-positioned itself as the Central Ohio OS/2 and Java Group. The Tampa Bay OS/2 Users' Group (TBOUG) is also considering such a move.
Conceivably there could be three Special Interest Groups (SIG) in a Java oriented user group:
Even Warpstock, scheduled for October 17-18th in Chicago and December 18-20th in Germany may wish to consider transitioning to a Java oriented program.
I know this must sound like heresy from an OS/2 advocate, but if IBM does indeed intend to supplant OS/2 with Java, what choice do we as OS/2 users have?
Now, you might say, "What about OS/2 CONNECT"? Will it transition to Java as well?" For the time being, No. But like OS/2 users, we may not have a choice either.
Keep the faith!
Copyright © MBA 1998
