As we all know by now, June 25th is the date Microsoft has designated to release Windows 98, assuming the courts allow it to be released. Industry experts have already acknowledged that there is no compelling reason for Win95 users to upgrade to Win98 since the only substantial improvement is the Internet Explorer (v4.0) which is available separately anyway. Further, don't expect companies to blindly upgrade just because Bill cracks the whip. Businesses are not quick to forget the costly expenses associated with upgrading to Windows 95 just three short years ago. No, I smell a genuine marketing disaster here for Microsoft. They obviously will not invest the millions of dollars into advertising the product as they did with the release of Windows 95, but then again, why should they? The government is giving them ample press already.
I find Microsoft's legal entanglements with the government rather amusing. Frankly, I believe they are taking the wrong tact in defending their embedding of the Internet Explorer in the operating system. Its not about creative freedom in the industry as Bill would have us believe. If I were to argue the case on Microsoft's behalf (God forbid!), I would draw a strong analogy to the development of the automobile where optional equipment evolves into standard equipment; e.g., power windows, automatic transmission, power steering, radios, etc. What was once optional in automobiles is now standard equipment. If I were representing Microsoft, I would vigorously defend the use of the Internet Explorer from this position.
As for the government's position, I guess we as OS/2 users were all surprised to see them attack Microsoft on something as flimsy as the Internet Explorer issue. Instead, the bigger picture is Microsoft's deals with computer vendors to pre-load the operating system on their equipment. Talk about stifling freedom of choice! Microsoft's pre-loading agreements have been so effective that the average consumer naively believes that there isn't any other operating system than Windows. I therefore see the government's case against bundling the Internet Explorer as nothing more than a means to get their foot in the front-door of Microsoft where the real issue is pre-loading.
So, if the Win98 rollout is a bust and the government finally cracks down on Microsoft, does this represent an opportunity for OS/2? The answer is a "definite maybe." IBM sees OS/2 as nothing more than a convenient method for implementing their e-Business strategy which relies heavily on client/server computing and the Internet, all of which is conducive to larger businesses. While Microsoft stumbles over the release of Windows 98 this year, IBM will quietly roll-out enhancements to OS/2 Warp Server and WorkSpace On-Demand in early 1999 (see related story in the IBM News & Press Releases section). I would like to believe IBM will capitalize on Microsoft's problems by re-positioning OS/2 Warp 4 as a viable alternative to the Windows world, but if history is any indicator, IBM will continue to hide its head in the sand. Besides, the only way they could make OS/2 Warp 4 a serious competitor again is by adding Win32 support which we all know is not forthcoming from IBM.
If given enough rope, maybe Microsoft will hang itself. This is what we should find out in 1998. Like IBM, we'll just have to watch and wait.
Keep the faith!
Copyright © MBA 1998
