First, I want to convince the reader that people will not switch to buses and trains, whether monorail or 'bullet'. The reason is that people are basically selfish and will only change to something that suits them better. Private cars take some beating - always ready to take you anywhere, whenever you want, right from your door to your destination - with your personal comforts such as sounds and privacy and almost complete security from the outside world. It is clear that most people who can afford a car will not give it up voluntarily in favour of efficient and cheap public transport, as can be seen in countries such as France. Forcing people to give up their cars, or taxing them off the roads, will never be politically popular, although such measures may have to be adopted in the short-term. The long-term answer is to provide something better - not as perceived by the worthy few, but by ordinary, selfish people.
Thirdly, I am going to describe my own realisable vision. This is not an invention, as it is based on bits of existing technology; nor is it a system ready to be built, as it would take a great deal of development. It is merely an example of a pollution-free and noise-free transport system that is within our reach.
The system would consist of a network of tubes about two metres in diameter in which the cars, about the size of the back of a London taxi, would run underground or above ground (depending on whether the increased cost would be justified by the environmental savings). Links up to about 200 mph could follow ground tracks like roads and railways, but very high speed links would require specially straight tracks, probably suspended above ground like a suspension bridge. Windows in the tubes would allow the traveller to see out. The speed would not only be controlled by the track, it would be decided by the designers and be fixed for every point on the track, enabling cars to run very close together without bumping into each other. This raises a safety issue in traditional engineering terms - stopping distance between cars in an emergency. The answer is that you don't need stopping distance between cars any more than you do between the carriages of a train, because each car is magnetically locked into a slot, like being hooked onto a moving chain. But what if the current fails? The cars fit the tube closely, so that the air between them moves at the same speed and would act like springs preventing them from crashing together: this is proven safety technology from lifts.
I envisage stations being at about the same spacing as bus stops are at present, though as prosperity grew people might afford their own. And I hope that each station would be manned by staff able to offer assistance if required; to deliver mail and goods to homes; and to hire out trolleys and low speed electric cars. In fact, I have a much broader vision in which these stations become the new local social centres because everyone passes through them, and they could become the base units of the political system.
At junctions, tracks would run adjacent and at the same speed, analogous to slip roads on a motorway. Between the two running tracks would be an intermediate transfer track. Cars changing track would transfer straight across if there were a slot available immediately adjacent, or accelerate on the transfer track to an empty slot. With correct programming there would always be a slot reserved, because congestion would be predicted and cars diverted, just as happens with telephone calls. As a further fail-safe feature, each track would form a complete loop, so that if a car did not leave a track for any reason it would be able to carry on round.
At each station, which would have its own loop of track, cars would come up like lifts to a small shop-front-style station at street level. They would pass through a detector to check them for weight and damage (and possibly even be scanned for explosives) before being allowed to leave the station's loop and return to the main track. Anyone finding a car dirty or vandalised would dial in a code that would send it to a depot - where it could be repaired and the previous user traced via their fare card. Additional detectors would check cars running on the tracks and divert those that were untrackworthy. Similarly, the state of the track would be constantly monitored by specially equipped cars.
Empty cars would return to the track. Whilst every station would have at least one waiting, there would be more diverted to particular areas to deal with rush hours, etc. Like any system it would have limited capacity but this could be increased by adding new tracks, stations and high speed links.
Goods would be carried in much the same way. A goods car would carry a normal fork-lift pallet load up to about a ton. Special cars could be called for longer loads, and some (such as tankers) would be privately owned. Every factory and warehouse would have its own station, and the staff at public stations would be able to deliver goods locally. Although this would require far more vehicles to carry the same goods as by lorry, the environmental impact would be less than at present because a high speed six foot tube could carry more than a twelve foot motorway lane. There would be an enormous economic advantage for business, as both people and goods could be expected to arrive within an hour or so of being despatched. Not only would the saving of time spent travelling save money, but there would be a vast saving in distribution depots, warehousing and handling of goods. For example, a manufacturer of biscuits could despatch direct to each supermarket, while a washing machine chosen from a showroom could be delivered direct from the factory by the time the customer got home.
The development costs of this new system would be high, but thereafter the capital and running costs should be lower than for new motorways or for above ground or underground railway lines: the tunnels required are narrow, the cars are engineless, small and cheap, and electricity can be produced from any energy source.
The problem with any new and potentially international system is how you begin. Suitable model trials in the UK could include extensions to existing tube lines - such as in South London, replacing suburban bus services. As more of these Smart Car tubes were built, they could be joined by fast links so as to form an independent system.
If such developments come about, one of the social implications will be to reduce the divisions in the UK between North and South, making commuting to work possible from almost anywhere in the country.
Nicholas Saunders, top floor, 14 Neal's Yard, London WC2H 9DP (tel 071 836 9404; fax 071 379 0135).