This QA-Training-Tool module was inspired by a "Quality Entertainment" suggestion from Herman Senter that was published in the "One Good Idea" column of QUALITY PROGRESS, December 1990, p.160. Senter's idea was to sponsor a "sampling tournament" (with a valuable prizes for the "winners") at your company's annual Quality-Day celebration. The GuessIt.EXE software module would "automate" all phases of the actual running of this tournament. On the other hand, but it would certainly be important to also provide hands-on demonstrations of the use of, say, sampling bowls with colored beads, sampling paddles, etc., etc. Here is the GuessIt.EXE main HELP screen: 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� 냥袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� GuessIt HELP 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴敲� 낳 Welcome to the GUESSIT Tournament... 볐 낳 볐 낳 The object of the game is to make your best guess at the 볐 낳 underlying defect rate in a batch of 10,000 items. 볐 낳 볐 낳 Before you make you guess, you may take a RANDOM SAMPLE of at 볐 낳 most 500 items [without replacement] from the batch of 10,000. 볐 낳 The GuessIt software will draw your sample and tell you how 볐 낳 many defective items it found. All sampled items, including 볐 낳 the defectives, are then returned to the batch. 볐 낳 볐 낳 Next, GuessIt will show you what the observed fraction defective 볐 낳 was in the last five samples it took and what the average 볐 낳 fraction defective was over those five samples. 볐 낳 볐 낳 Then you make your best guess at the underlying true defect rate,볐 낳 using a number with 4 decimal places. For example, a guess of 볐 낳 0.0103 would mean that you think that there are 103 defective 볐 낳 items in the batch of 10,000 ...i.e. about 1 percent defective. 볐 냠袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴설 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 2 By the way, a secondary objective of the GuessIt.EXE simulation is to illustrate how DIFFICULT it actually is to estimate the 3rd and 4th decimal places in a nonconformance fraction using only random sampling (rather that a complete census/count.) Here is the opening screen from GuessIt.EXE... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � � � GUESSIT.EXE...Version 9210 � � � � *** Guess the Underlying "Defect Rate" via Sampling *** � � � � A Quality Assurance Training Tool: � � Statistics Committee of the QA Section of the PMA � � Bob Obenchain, CompuServe User [72007,467] � � � � �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � � � Press a key to SETUP the GAME... � � � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 In response to each GuessIt prompt, the user may select the displayed [default] value by simply pressing the ENTER key... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � � � At colon Prompts : ...simply press ENTER to get the [default]. � � � � Specify filename to save Output [GUESSIT.out] : <--Note default � � name in []'s.� � The GuessIt Output file is to be: GUESSIT.out � � � � Specify a "Declare-the-Winner" PASSWORD... � � [ Maximum of 8 characters. ] � � � � PASSWORD : 1234 <-- The tournament organizer must enter � � his/her "secret" PASSWORD here. � � � � GuessIt PASSWORD is now set to >> 1234<< <--Echo of ENTERED � � PASSWORD � � Of the 10,000 items in the population, how many are � � defective ? (min=1;max=501) [113] : 321 � � � � Defects in Population = 321. � � � � Input Simulation Start-up Seed ( 0 means use your Clock ): 0 � � � � Equivalent Start-Up Seed = -26883. � � � � Press Q to QUIT now...Other Key to Continue... � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 3 NOTE: The player who comes closest to the cumulative average of all random samples taken during the tournament will be declared the winner. In other words, the theoretically "best" guess in the above case would be fraction defective = 0.0321. But that guess will not necessarly be the winner due to the stochastic nature of the sampling simulation! Individual players in the GuessIt.EXE tournament have access to items "G" and "H" on the Main Menu. Only tournament organizer(s) who know the current password can use items "V" and "W" to display the current tournament leader(s), summary statistics, and VGA graphics displays... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � � � Main Menu � � � � G = Guess the "Defect Rate" � � � � H = display HELP screen � � � � V = View Cumulative Results � � � � W = determine the WINNER � � � � choice --> G � � � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� 냥袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴 Sample Selection 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � 낳 � � 낳 Welcome to the GUESSIT Tournament... � � 낳 � � 낳 You are Player Number: 5 � � 낳 � � 낳 Please respond to the following prompts for Information. � � 낳 � � 낳 What is your NAME ? : Bob Obenchain � � 낳 � � 낳 OK, Bob Obenchain... � � 낳 Before you make you guess at the underlying defect rate, � � 낳 you may take a Random Sample of at most 500 items without � � 낳 replacement from the Population of 10,000 items. � � 낳 � � 낳 What will be the SIZE of your Random Sample ? [500] : <---Take � 낳 Now selecting your sample of size 500... Default 낳 � � 낳 A total of 13 defects were found in your sample. � � 낳 � � 낳 Press a key to Continue... � � 냠袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 4 NOTE: The default name assigned to a player, if he/she simply presses the enter key without first entering his/her name, is "Player Number NNN, where NNN is a number between 5 and 500. The first four player numbers are used by GuessIt.EXE to randomly start up the game; in this way, the first actual player (number 5) sees the same MAXIMUM amount of sampling history (5 samples of 500) available to subsequent players. NOTE: Some players may decide to collect less than the maximum sample size of 500 and, thus, less than the maximum amount of "new" information about the true fraction defective. This handicaps not only them but also the four players who immediately follow them. This is the case because GuessIt.EXE shows each player only the results from the 5 most recent samples (plus the average over these 5 samples, weighted by sample size)... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴커 냥袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� Sample Selection 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴敲 � 낳 �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴 GuessIt NOW!!! 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴뺙 낳 � 볐 낳 � Results from the 5 most recent samples were as follows... 볐 낳 � 볐 낳 � Observed 볐 낳 � Defect Sample 볐 낳 � Player Name: Rate Size 볐 낳 � Start-Up... 0.0240 500 볐 낳 � Start-Up... 0.0220 500 볐 낳 � Start-Up... 0.0260 500 볐 낳 � Start-Up... 0.0280 500 볐 낳 � Bob Obenchain 0.0260 500 볐 낳 � 볐 낳 � The AVERAGE of these FIVE defect rates = 0.0252 볐 낳 � 볐 낳 � HINT: The underlying true defect rate is less than 0.1000. 볐 낳 � 볐 낳 � Make your best guess at the underlying true defect rate as a 볐 낳 � number with 4 decimal places... >0.1234< 볐 낳 � What is your BEST GUESS ? [0.0252] : <---Default is 볐 낳 � the AVERAGE!볐 낳 � Your entry, rounded to four decimal places, is 0.0252. 볐 낳 � 볐 냠故 Is this your BEST GUESS ? [Y|n] : <--Default here is YES. 볐 � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠� 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 5 NOTE: GuessIt.EXE assures that each contestant's guess is UNIQUE! If the value entered has previously been selected by another player, GuessIt will display messages such as... "Sorry, another player has already chosen 0.0252." And either "The closest SMALLER guess available is 0.0251." or "No SMALLER guess values are available." Plus either "The closest LARGER guess available is 0.0255." or "No LARGER guess values are available." The player must continue to enter guesses until he/she makes a unigue choice and CONFIRMS that he/she wants to use that guess. Item "V" on the main menu can be used by anybody who knows the current PASSWORD to display how the game is progressing. The graph that is displayed doesn't have labelled tick marks on its axes, so it's "okay" for contestants to see this sort of "relative" trends plot (after they have made their guess.) There is really very little information here that they could communicate to players who have not yet made their guess... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � � � Main Menu � � � � G = Guess the "Defect Rate" � � � � H = display HELP screen � � � � V = View Cumulative Results � � � � W = determine the WINNER � � � � choice --> V � � � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� Display Cummulative Results 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � � � Enter the PASSWORD : 1234 <---Entered PASSWORD will NOT actually � � show on the screen as it does here.� � � � The VGA graphics screen will show how the cumulative � � average fraction defective stablizes as sampling progresses. � � The horizontal RED line marks the underlying true fraction � � defective within the total batch of 10,000 items. � � � � Press a Key to initiate Graphics... � � � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 6 Item "W" on the main menu can also be used by anybody who knows the current PASSWORD, but this item "ends" the GuessIt.EXE tournament and determines the final "winner." The graph that is displayed again doesn't have labelled tick marks on its axes, but this time player guesses are also plotted and the theoretical "true" rate is revealed... 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴 GuessIt Sampling Game 컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� � � � Main Menu � � � � G = Guess the "Defect Rate" � � � � H = display HELP screen � � � � V = View Cumulative Results � � � � W = determine the WINNER � � � � choice --> W � � � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴켸 �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� And the WINNER is... 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴敲 � � � Enter the PASSWORD : 1234 <---Entered PASSWORD will NOT actually � � show on the screen as it does here.� � PASSWORD matches! � � � � At this point in the GuessIt Tournament, the minimum � � absolute deviation between the current cumulative defect � � rate and player guesses is 0.0000. � � � � Right now, the Tournament Leader is Bob Obenchain. � � NOT the � � Is the GuessIt Tournament now COMPLETE ? [N|y] : y <---DEFAULT � � Response � � The Tournament Winner is Bob Obenchain. � � � � ...His/Her Best Guess was 0.025200. � � � � The VGA graphics screen will show the cumulative defect rate � � in White, the individual defect rates in CYAN, and player � � guesses in GREEN. The horizontal RED line is the theoretical � � true fraction defective of 0.0321. � � � � Press a Key to initiate Graphics... � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 NOTE: Once the "current" tournament leader is revealed, the tournament organizer still has the option of using the default response of NO to continue rather than end the tournament. After all, neither that leading player's guess or the current cumulative average have yet been displayed on the screen. Even though the current leader's deviation from the current cumulative average may be 0.0000 at this point, a different player could still end up winning at a later point in the tournament! GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 7 NOTE: Two players could also tie, of course. Suppose the cumulative average defect rate ends up at, say, 0.0383 and the two closest guesses bracket this value at, say, 0.0379 and 0.0387. Then both guesses are off by exactly 0.0004, and those two players would then tie. Once a winner has been declared, Guessit.EXE terminates with the messages... �袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴� And the WINNER is... 袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴敲 � Press a Key to EXIT the GuessIt software system. � 훤袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴袴暠 REMINDER(S) : GUESSIT created an output file named: GUESSIT.out Use the DOS invocation... TYPE GUESSIT.out | MORE to review detailed information about this run of the GUESSIT game. The GuessIt.EXE output file will contain a wealth of information about how the tournament actually progressed... GuessIt.EXE, ver.9210.....................................Page 8 旼컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴� � GuessIt Sampling Tournament... � � Date/Time Stamp : Sat Oct 10 22:17:10 1992 � � � � PASSWORD set to >>87654321<< � � Total Number of Defects = 501 � � Random Number Seed = -18218 � � � � At Turn Number NNN, the Cumulative Defect Rate was 0.0488. � � The Tournament Leader at that point was Player Number 10 � � whose Guess was 0.0488. � � The Tornament ENDED at this point. � � � � Elapsed Tournament Time in Seconds = XXX � � Total Number of Players = NNN � � Observed Cumulative � � Defect Defect Best � � Player Name: Rate Rate Guess � � Start-Up... 0.0480 0.0480 -0.0999 � � Start-Up... 0.0560 0.0520 -0.0999 � � Start-Up... 0.0400 0.0480 -0.0999 � � Start-Up... 0.0440 0.0470 -0.0999 � � Player Number 5 0.0380 0.0452 0.0452 � � Player Number 6 0.0620 0.0480 0.0480 � � Player Number 7 0.0440 0.0474 0.0456 � � Player Number 8 0.0420 0.0468 0.0460 � � Player Number 9 0.0380 0.0458 0.0448 � � Player Number 10 0.0580 0.0470 0.0488 � � Player Number 11 0.0440 0.0467 0.0451 � � Player Number 12 0.0420 0.0463 0.0447 � � Player Number 13 0.0560 0.0471 0.0476 � � Player Number 14 0.0600 0.0480 0.0520 � � Player Number 15 0.0460 0.0479 0.0496 � � etc., etc. � � Player Number NNN 0.0620 0.0488 0.0478 � 읕컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴컴�