When, way back when, New Scientist magazine asked the question, 'Does
anybody want to save the ozone layer?', little did they think that
eleven years later the Vienna Convention would be arguing with the
world's poorer countries over limits imposed on them over ozone
destroying chemicals. In 1985, 49 of the world's top nations signed a
global treaty to protect the ozone layer in Vienna in a seldom seen
gesture of global solidarity. This treaty was ratified in Montreal in
1987 and dates were set for the phasing out of ozone-depleting
chemicals like CFCs, halons and methyl chloroform by the early part
of the next century. The Montreal Protocol has been revised several
times in its nine year history, probably most significantly when in
1990 the industrial nations who had already signed up promised to
give developing countries an incentive to stop the use of such ozone
depleting chemicals in the form of a $150 million per year to the end
of a complete ban on the aforementioned chemicals by 2010, ten years
after the industrial nations are supposed to have stopped using them.
With this magnanimous gesture the total number of countries signed up
for the treaty more than tripled to a figure of 150. Unfortunately, there seems to be something of an impasse developing at the moment between the have's and the have not's where the developing countries in the agreement have refused to phase out HCFCs and methyl bromide unless there is more money forthcoming to help them with the no-doubt painful changeover to less harmful, but more expensive chemical products. But the industrial nations in the treaty (who have already agreed to completely banning these substances by 2030) have categorically stated that they have no further money to help fund the developing nations unless further promises to ban these substances were taken - and perhaps not even then. More than one country is seriously looking at the amount of money they are spending for other countries to be able to cut back and eventually cease the use of ozone depleting chemicals and the US, for one, is debating in congress whether or not to cut back on funding. On the subject of HCFCs, it appears that because they are being used in replacement of CFCs they are fast becoming a similar, if somewhat less immediate, threat. The Vienna convention's scientific commitee reckons that if industrial nations were to ban HFCs as well as CFCs by 2000 just over four and a half per cent less ozone would be lost. But the industrial countries signed up for the treaty only agreed to limits for HCFCs that are in effect little different from the promises they initially made with 99.5 per cent of HCFCs being phased out by 2020 and completely banned by ten years later. Because of the disagreement over funding the developing nations have only agreed to freeze HCFC usage at levels used in 2015 in 2016 with a ban by 2040, but this will almost certainly mean an increase in HCFC usage as industrial nations dump obsolete and illegal HCFC-using technology onto the developing nations and the developing countries themselves up their usage so that, come the freeze in 2016, they will be at a comfortable level of supply. Part of the problem is that there is no simple equation when it comes to the mixed bag of science that is trying to decipher ozone depletion and global warming. The two are without doubt linked, but the whole situation will only be truly visible once it has occurred - too late for mankind. Unfortunately, the current models for ozone depletion have been found to be underpredicting current levels of ozone loss by a factor of about two. What's worse, according to some gloomy scientists, is the probability that ozone depletion will actually accelerate in a snowball effect scenario caused by the amount of ozone that has already been lost. The title 'snowball effect' is ironically accurate as the reason for the accelerated depletion could be caused by the stratosphere cooling down and being more prone to form ice crystals (ozone absorbs ultraviolet rays from the sun warming up the stratposhere) which are known to increase ozone depletion as observed in the 'ozone hole' over Antartica.
Methyl Bromide - great stuff, honest Methyl bromide is the latest agricultural chemical to come under fire from ozone specialists. It is a pesticide used for the fumigation of soil and fresh fruit and veg and it could be one of the most hazardous chemicals in widespread use as far as the ozone layer is concerned. Some estimates say that methyl bromide might ac3tually be responsible for some 15 per cent of ozone losses so far. Unfortunately, plans to ban it altogether in 2010 have met with fierce opposition from interested parties who say that it is essential to their farms. Still industrial countries agreed to freeze production of methyl bromide at 1991 levels in 1992 although the developing countries only agreed to freeze it in 2002 at levels somewhere between those now in use and in 1998.
Budgetary gloom Scientists worried about the so-called Brain Drain effect of budget cuts against them tempting valuable researchers away to other countries with a more positive attitude to research and development will be holding their heads in their hands following the latest budget results announced at the end of November last year. Although appearing initially encouraging with the main Science budget up by twelve million pounds next year to a grand total of �1312 million, a figure triumphantly announced by Ian Taylor, Britain's Science minister, he carefully did not announce the less than great news that there would be decreases for the following two years of �14 million each, reducing the total funding to only �1284 million. Worse still was the news that was skimmed over which was the fact that the funding for university laboratories through the Department of Education and Employment has been reduced by about a third from 1995's budget of �350 million. The �107 million cut means that labs won't be able to completely revamp their equipment, some of which is dangerously old. In 1989, the University of Manchester carried out a survey of university laboratories and found that over a third of laboratory equipment was over ten years old then and that 80 per cent of departments didn't have the equipment they needed for their research programs. Sometime early this year the university will publish its findings in a follow-up to the original report, but there can be little hope of any improvement.
Galileo success Following on from last month's report about the Galileo mission to Jupiter, I thought you might be interested to know that the insertion of the probe into Jupiter's harsh atmosphere was an unqualified success. The probe sent data back to the spacecraft for more than the expected forty minutes and Galileo managed successfully to achieve escape velocity from Jupiter's upper atmosphere in order to take up an orbit around the giant planet. The data gathered from the probe is currently being transmitted back at about a byte a second from Galileo (because of the problems with the main antenna as described in the last issue) and we can look forward to seeing pictures around June or July.
No Netscape for the Amiga - but hope looms Well, the rumours of Netscape developing a version of Navigator for the Amiga have been firmly quashed, despite a hoax picture of the software with Amiga gadgets rather than Mac or Windows versions. However, Gilles Bourdin, Director of public relations for Amiga Technologies, has confirmed that Amiga Technologies will be releasing an Internet bundle sometime in the new year. The package will consist of an A1200 with hard drive of indeterminate size, a PCMCIA modem (whose speed is unknown at the present time) and a ready-to-run suite of Internet and TCP/IP software including a forms-capable Web browser and an IRC client. A rough price has been set for the bundle of 1300DM, which translates to about �600. Why a PCMCIA modem has been chosen over a traditional serial port version has not been commented on, but it seems to this journalist like a bad idea given the number of peripherals already using the PCMCIA port in comparison to the serial port.
Cocaine addiction cracked? Scientists in California have come up with a potential vaccine against the killer drug cocaine. Addicts have always been treated with counselling in the past, but the rate of success was, perhaps unsurprisingly, not too high. This new concept is based on the body's natural defence system - antibodies - and works by making a more stable form of cocaine that does not break down in the bloodstream as quickly as standard cocaine. This lets the antibodies acclimatise themselves to the invader and then develop ways of wiping it out. Thence forward, the body will repel any form of cocaine thus preventing it from reaching the brain. That's the theory, so far the vaccine has only been tested on rats, but with a rate of success that has been very encouraging. The only possible problem is with the mental attitude of addicts who would probably be only too willing to swamp their bodies with increased doses of cocaine to overcome their improved defence system. |