The Cydonia Files
Evidence for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

How Probable is Cydonia?

How probable is a rock that looks like a face? We can calculate that probability by breaking the face into component parts, and then calculating the probability for each part. Multiplying the component probabilities together will give the net probability.

First, let's break the face down into component parts:

The Face Components

The parts identified are: (1) a smooth top, (2) a smooth side, (3) a smooth chin, (4) an eye socket, (5) a nose, and (6) a mouth. Now what are the probabilities for each component? Let's start with (1), a smooth top:

The Face's top is smooth. If it was any other way -- bending up or down -- it would look less 'facelike.' This is one possibility out of three, each equally likely.

The probability for Face Component #1 is therefore 1/3.

And the same is true for the side of the Face; the probability for Face Component #2 is also 1/3.

In fact, each component has a probability of 1/3. The eye socket could have been a hill -- or it could have been perfectly smooth. The nose could be a depression, or it could be missing entirely. Yet, somehow, the Face has been created in the form we see: six components, each with a probability of 1/3, each contributing to the overall appearance of the Face. If any one feature was different, we'd have to make excuses: "He's wearing a hat, his ears stick out, he's got a beard, his eye was put out in a fight." But as it turns out, the Face is perfectly natural. All six components are correct for the presentation of a normal face.

And so the overall probability of the Face is:

1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/729

Everyone knows there are more than 729 rocks on Mars, so it is not a miracle that one rock should look like a face. Indeed, Mars has a surface area of 150 million square kilometers, and the Face is only one square kilometer in area. Logically, if our analysis was correct, we'd expect:

(150,000,000 places for facelike rocks to form) x 1/729 = 205,000 facelike rocks

Now, the space probe photographs show nothing of the sort. Why not? Because our analysis was very conservative. In reality, facelike rocks are more uncommon -- like one in a million. But we are bending over backwards to accomodate the critics here, and so we accept the proposition that 1 out of every 729 rocks will be naturally formed, by erosional processes, to look like a human face.

And of course, we're not finished. For there are other features at Cydonia. Let's now look at that Second Face:

The Second Face Components

The component facial features are: (1) a smooth side, (2) a smooth head, (3) a right eye, (4) a left eye, (5) a nose, (6) a mouth, (7) a chin. The net probability for all these features to fall together by chance alone is:

1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/2187.

Again, by itself, this probability is not very impressive. The Second Face is little over a kilometer square, and there are 150 million square kilometers on Mars. If the odds of a Second Face appearing by natural processes alone are 1 in 2000, then we should expect to see thousands of faces on Mars. But we don't -- we're being conservative, and allowing Nature to play a much larger role in making facelike rocks than it actually has.

Now let's step back and think of the overall composition. What is the probability that two such faces would exist together in the same vicinity? That would be:

Probability of Face #1 x Probability of Face #2 = 1/729 x 1/2187 = 1/1,594,323.

We're not done yet. And we're not just dealing with faces, remember, but with a model of the Martian Moon System:

The Cydonia Schematic Layout

We have two more images that match the composition. First, the Centerpoint, representing the center of Mars, and second, the wall, representing the radius of Mars. Let's examine the Centerpoint ("cross-hairs") from a probability point of view:

The Centerpoint as Cross-hairs

There are four dots, and they don't need to be hilighted. If random nature was at work, each dot could have been replaced by a hole, or a flat surface. The probability that nature would generate such an image is:

1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/81.

Then there's that Wedge. .

The Wedge as Radius

The smooth curving wall on the right could have bent sharply in or out. It didn't. It's unnatural-seeming smoothness at least deserves a probability assignment of 1/3.

Which gives us the following cumulative probability:

Net = Centerpoint x Wedge x Face x Second Face

Net = 1/81 x 1/3 x 1/729 x 1/2187 = 1/387,420,489.

Even with 150,000,000 square kilomters on Mars, it's improbable that Nature could generate all these features in the same general area on the surface.

And now let's deal with the placement of those features:

How about the distances separating these objects? Are they proportional to the distances separating the bodies of the Martian Moon System? You can take a ruler to the screen picture shown above and measure out the distances, comparing to the scale at the bottom. According to my measurements, made from the official NASA photographs, the distances are within one percent of the same scale. Let's be conservative, and say the distances are within two percent of the same scale. Does that generate any component probabilities?

The figure shows a rock being thrown randomly along a line. We randomly call out a slot along a line with ten slots. What is the probability that a rock, thrown randomly, will land in the specifically designated slot? As can be seen, the probability is 1/10. And as can be seen, this is the same as saying that the probability a rock will land within ten percent of a designated distance is 1/10!

For the Cydonia Complex, we have three scaled distances, which correlate with actual Martian Moon System distances as follows:

(1) The distance from the center of Mars to the radius of Mars (3397 km), which corresponds at Cydonia with the distance between the Centerpoint and the Wedge.

(2) The distance from the center of Mars to the first moon of Mars, Phobos (9380 km), which corresponds at Cydonia with the distance between the Centerpoint and the Face.

(3) The distance from the center of Mars to the second moon of Mars, Deimos (23,400 km), which corresponds at Cydonia with the distance between the Centerpoint and the Second Face.

We determine the scale of the Cydonia map by comparing one of these distances to the actual distance in the Martian Moon System. Then we find that the other two distances are proportional to within one percent. The probability that these two distances would match the scale are 1/100 each, and the net distance probability is 1/100 x 1/100 = 1/10,000.

But as mentioned, some people say it's only two percent. That's 1/50 x 1/50 = 1/2500. That gives us a smaller number -- but hardly one that is irrelevant! For now our total probability is:

Net probability = Features x distances = 1/387,420,489 x 1/2500 = about 1 in a trillion.

A trillion is bigger than 150 million, but we're not done yet. Let's look at the angular alignments:

Lining up the facial features

Here are two rays, drawn from the Centerpoint to features on the Face and Second Face. Now, here's the odd coincidence: Ray #1 shows that the chins of the two faces are aligned with respect to the Centerpoint, and Ray #2 shows that the eyes of the faces are aligned, too! This is something that an artist would do as a matter of course, but for a natural explanation, we must again recognize an improbability.

There are 360 degrees in a circle, and the Second Face is aligned within one degree of the Centerpoint and Face. Shall we say that the probability for that is 1/360? If so:

Net probability = Features x Distances x Alignments = about 1 in 360 trillion.

Now, about the statement, "But Mars is a big world, there are plenty of opportunities for random chance to generate surface features that strike the human eye as odd." Just how many opportunities are there, though? There are 150 million square kilometers on Mars, giving the planet 150 million opportunities to generate the Face on Mars (1 square kilometer in area). Since the probability of the Face on Mars is 1/729, we're not surprised that Mars has generated a feature that looks like a Face.

But the Cydonia Complex as a whole is a much more sophisticated design than a single human face. And it is much larger than the Face itself. The Cydonia Complex covers an area of sixty kilometers by ten -- six hundred kilometers total. Thus Mars, using merely natural forces of geology and weather, has only 150,000,000 sq km / 600 sq km = 250,000 opportunities to duplicate it.

So how likely is the Cydonia Complex? We multiply the probability that it could be created in one place times the number of places it could be created on Mars:

1/360 trillion x 250,000 = about 1/1.4 billion

In other words: there is less than one chance in a billion that the Cydonia Complex formed naturally!

And you know what that implies. No, I'm not absolutely sure the Cydonia Complex is the product of intelligent design. Only about 99.9999999% sure.

So where did we go wrong? On the data? On the measurements? On the application of probability theory? Critics are welcome to submit an alternative, scientific analysis.

Review the data. Research the assertions. Make the measurements. Perform the calculations.

Come to a rational, objective conclusion. Then act on it.


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