INTRODUCTION/

cientists have reached a watershed in their understanding of climate change. The publication of the Second Assessment Report (SAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents a historic milestone in the study of the greenhouse effect: for the first time scientific consensus has been reached that there is a discernible human influence on climate.

Not only has it been possible to detect a human cause in the changes that are being observed currently, but the IPCC states that: 'The projections covered in this report indicate clearly that future climate change will be dominated by human influences unl ess and until the composition of the atmosphere is stabilised' - a clear indication that humans, particularly those living in industrialised countries, need to adjust the ways they conduct activities such as travelling, producing and transporting goods, a nd heating buildings.

The SAR is the work of more than 2,000 scientists worldwide, and draws on the research of hundreds more. Its four dense volumes, packed with analysis of the most up-to-date scientific research on climate change, will be the key climate science reference b ook for several years. The First Assessment came out in 1990 and its stark findings spurred governments to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio in 1992. But the first report was unable to identify a human influence on the world's climate. Indeed, most people thought that this would be impossible before the next century. However, improvements in models, computing power, and understanding of the temporary cooling effect of sulphate aerosols (particles), has meant the human f ootprint has now been detected.

Another major step forward is that model projections now closely match observed data of temperature records. This means that projections for future temperature rises can be viewed with increased confidence.

WWF has been contributing to the scientific work of the IPCC since it began in 1988. To help ensure that the most significant points of the new report reach the widest possible audience and achieve meaningful changes in policy, WWF commissioned an indepen dent science writer to produce this summary of its findings.

The parties to the Climate Convention are currently endeavouring to strengthen the treaty by negotiating binding agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. WWF hopes that the report will provide the scientific stimulus to stop diplomatic foo t-dragging and start the endorsement of innovative climate protection strategies.

Among the key findings of the IPCC are:

  • The world has warmed by between about 0.3° C and 0.6° C in the last 100 years. This has been the warmest century for at least 600 years and recent years have been among the warmest this century.

  • An average 2° C average warming is predicted by the end of the next century. This warming will be greater at high latitudes.

  • Global sea level has risen by between 10- 25cm in the last 100 years, largely because of thermal expansion of water due to warming. The surface layer of the sea is becoming warmer to greater depths.

  • Even if dramatic reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases are achieved, the global temperature will continue to climb for several decades into the next century.

  • Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries even after concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilised due to thermal inertia of the oceans. By 2100, sea level is projected to rise by anything between 15 and 95cm ( the best estimate is 50cm ).

Physical evidence for the global warming trend can be seen in phenomena such as the world - wide melting and retreat of glaciers. Ice in the European Alps appears to have shrunk by about 50% in volume and the warming in the region is thought to be greater than at any point in the last 10,000 years. Significant permafrost melting is also being recorded in the Arctic. Strong evidence exists that there has been an increase in precipitation over land in high latitudes, especially during the cold season.

As a conservation organisation, WWF is obviously deeply concerned about the potential impacts of climate change on biological diversity. Boreal forests, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and alpine ecosystems will all suffer from global warming - as will man y other types of ecosystems. The IPCC report lays out in no uncertain terms that, 'a significant loss of species must be considered as one of the most important impacts of climate change..'

There is no doubt that the rate of species extinctions will increase as the climate warms. Rare species, fragmented ecosystems, and areas already suffering from human - induced stresses such as pollution or deforestation will be among the most vulnerable.

Measures to prevent these extinctions are extremely limited, and many existing protected areas and National Parks will fail to protect species from the impacts of climate change. This means that it is all the more important for governments take heed of th e new IPCC report and act swiftly to agree reductions in greenhouse gases that will enable them to meet their obligations under the Climate Convention - i.e. to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere "within a time - frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change".

The new IPCC report is a clear signal that strong policy measures are urgently required to start to send greenhouse gas emission curves in a downward direction. All carbon cycle stabilisation models show that to stabilise carbon dioxide at its present lev el it will be necessary to cut emissions by 50% - 70% immediately, and to make further reductions thereafter.

The IPCC also shows how these reductions can be achieved. Two of the three working groups that drew up the report examined policy options to mitigate climate change impacts. They found that there is great potential for improving energy efficiency: 10% - 3 0% efficiency gains can be achieved at little or no cost in many parts of the world, and gains of 50% - 60% are possible, provided that relevant technologies and financing are available.

Scarcely had the IPCC finished its deliberations when meteorologists reported that the Earth in 1995 was at its hottest since records began: on average temperatures were 1° C higher than in 1860. WWF therefore wants to see governments introduce measures as a matter of vital importance. If they do not, the socio - economic and environmental c onsequences may be too dramatic for the world to handle.


Adam Markum , Director, WWF Climate Campaign

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