Scorecard summary:
Fulfilment of Rio Conference Commitment- Red
Current Government Position on Climate Change- Red
Per Capita CO2 Emissions- Green (7.58 metric tons per person in 1992)
National CO2 Emissions - Green (26 million metric tons in 1992)
OVERALL ASSESSMENT:
Small and idiosyncratic player within the
international Climate Change treaty negotiations, supports net approach
using forest sinks, may introduce a small carbon levy.
NATIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION GOAL:
The current Government
objective is to
reduce CO2 net emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 and to keep them at that
level beyond then. An objective of reducing CO2 net emissions to 20
percent below their 1990 levels by 2000 was adopted in 1990 but has been
dropped.
SPECIFIC FEATURES:
New Zealand has a small economy and only some
3.5
million inhabitants. The significance of agriculture in the economy is
reflected in the fact that methane emissions constitute 57 percent of the
total greenhouse gas emissions, with CO2 33 percent and nitrous oxide
less than 10 percent. CO2 emissions however are projected to grow between
14-17 percent from 1990-2000. The government's strategy to reduce CO2
emissions is sink enhancement and to rely on afforestation as an
important though transitional way of mitigating climate change.
NEGATIVE FEATURES:
Unlike the trend in most OECD countries,
energy
intensity (supply/GDP) grew over the two decades up to 1993 but has
recently fallen off. Gasoline prices, in particular, are low compared
with most OECD countries. The reliance on carbon
sequestration, the sink approach, has not been agreed at international
level. There is
considerable uncertainty as to how sequestration of carbon in planted
forests will develop, depending on planting and cutting rates and the
fact that they represent only a small sector in terms of land use but one
which is changing rapidly. Furthermore, there are great uncertainties
associated with levels of carbon storage in indigenous forest together
with the main mechanisms in carbon uptake and it is not clear whether
the forest is a net sink or source.
POSITIVE FEATURES:
The Government has indicated that it will
introduce a
low level carbon charge by the end of 1997 if the CO2 programme is not
seen as being on track by 1997. Electric power is very largely
renewable in origin: 70-75 percent hydro and 7 percent
geothermal.
Sources: Energy Policies of IEA Countries 1996 Review. Independent
NGO Evaluations of
National Plans for Climate Change Mitigation -Europe second review,
Climate Action
Network, Brussels, August 1994.