REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE DECEMBER 1997 KYOTO, JAPAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS
On December 11, 1997 an international agreement to combat climate change was negotiated by 171 countries in Kyoto, Japan. As the first legally-binding protocol
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, WWF believes it is an important first step towards reversing the growing threat global climate change poses to wildlife and
nature. However, the treaty contains several significant loopholes that may allow countries to do very little.
Overall, the agreement calls for a 5.2% aggregate cut in heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized nations below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012.
The Wall Street Journal described the Kyoto negotiations as "the most complex non-military treaty negotiations in history." WWF staff, along with hundreds of
other climate change experts in government and non-government organizations, are still analyzing all the details of the new protocol. For now, WWF is pleased
that an agreement was reached that environmental organizations can work to implement and strengthen over the coming years.
REAL GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTIONS?
What does an agreed 5.2% percentage reduction of greenhouse gases by 2012 mean? The protocol does, for the first time, set target reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions as well as a timetable to achieve these reductions. With a few exceptions (e.g. Australia, Norway, Russia) industrialized nations will be bound to
emissions reductions from where they are today.
The United States has agreed to cut greenhouse gases by 7%, the European Union by 8%, and Japan by 6%, but many details about how those cuts will be made have
been deferred until the next United Nations Conference of the Parties on climate change (COP4), scheduled to take place in November 1998. Thus, many loopholes
remain open. More importantly, currently agreed reductions fall far short of the emission cuts needed in the coming decades -- on the order of 50% to 70%
according to scientific consensus -- to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
KYOTO TREATY FLAWS
1. TRADING -- Rules and guidelines have not agreed out for how industrialized countries might participate in an international trading regime by purchasing,
rather than carry out domestically, emission reductions from other industrialized countries. For example, Russia, because of its unusually low emissions from
the collapse of its economy, will be left with emission "credits." These credits could be sold to countries such as the United States, resulting in little or
no at home reductions for one world's worst carbon dioxide emitter.
2. SINKS -- Many questions remain about how the inclusion of "sinks," such as forests that absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, in the Kyoto protocol will
affect both the emissions reductions targets, and forest conservation.
3. COMPLIANCE MECHANISMS -- Proposals for penalties against nations that do not live up to the Kyoto agreement will be discussed at the first "Meeting of the
Parties" (MOP1). This is unlikely to take place before 2000.
4. ADEQUACY OF COMMITMENTS -- The mechanism for reviewing the adequacy of the commitments made in the Kyoto protocol is very weak and may make it very difficult
for the protocol to be strengthened as the scientific understanding evolves.
5. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -- Voluntary commitments from developing countries to reduce greenhouse gases were demanded by the United States. But, that proposal
was rejected in the final hours of negotiations in Kyoto. Without "meaningful participation" from key developing countries, it will be difficult to get the
Kyoto protocol ratified by the U.S. Senate.
1998 AND BEYOND
- The Kyoto protocol was a first step from which there is no going back. The treaty must serve as a turning point for the environment, but much more
action needs to be taken over the long-term to reverse the threat of climate change.
- Industrialized nations should start to implement the Kyoto agreement immediately in order to help drive down the rate of warming as soon as possible.
- WWF and other environmental groups must step up pressure to close some of the Kyoto treaty loopholes, at the COP4 meeting in Argentina in November.
- The global environmental community must ensure that the Kyoto agreement provides economic signals to business and industry around the world that will stimulate
a move away from their reliance on oil and coal.