roughts are among the future climate change impacts examined in a new report, Climate Change and Southern Africa, commissioned by WWF and coordinated by Dr. Mike Hulme of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), at the University of East Anglia, UK. The study bui
lds on the work of the latest state-of-the-science report from the respected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and uses the same methodologies. The assessment is based on three alternative climate change scenarios, "core," "dry," and "wet."
All three scenarios are based on a temperature rise of 1.7° C by the 2050s decade. This is agreed by the IPCC scientists to be the most likely amount of warming assuming little or no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (without taking
into account the slight moderating effect of aerosols in the atmosphere). The "core" scenario points to modest drying over large parts of the region, plus widespread increases in rainfall variability. In Zimbabwe, this scenario would result in around a 5%
decrease in annual rainfall, and this in turn would translate into agricultural problems, with yield reliability for the staple maize crop declining. Changes in surface water availability would reduce farmers' ability to use irrigation in compensation fo
r poor rainfall. The "dry" scenario shows that rainfall could decline by as much as 10% across the region, while under the "wet" scenario most of the region gets wetter.
Although it is too early to say which of these scenarios is most likely to materialize, the prospect of such climate change means that the region needs to prepare itself for some substantial changes in weather, particularly in the timing and distribution
of rains. These changes will alter natural vegetation, wildlife habitats, crop growing seasons, and the distribution of pests and diseases. Much greater adaptability will be required in the future on the part of farmers, rural communities and government a
gencies in hard hit parts of the region.