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Monster Media 1994 #1
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1993-11-30
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MERCK
10/19/93
10/18/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr
Merck & Co. 32.25 47-28 12/4 2.37 2.55 12.6 0.60 0.53 MRK
Merck & Co.'s reported third-quarter earnings from continuing operations of
$0.62 per share versus $0.55 a year ago, slightly higher than consensus and
our estimate of $0.60-$0.61. Analysts have fine-tuned our fourth-quarter
estimate upward $0.01 to $0.60 (up 13%), bringing the full year number to
$2.37, an 11.7% increase versus a year ago. Key points are as follows:
1. Third-quarter sales increased 3% to $2.54 billion, including a negative
3% impact from foreign exchange, a 6% increase in volume, and no change in
price. (Excluding the Calgon Water divestiture in June 1993, revenues grew
6% during the quarter.) Strong product performances included Zocor (up
42% to $235 million), Prilosec (up 100% to %195 million), and animal health
(up 20% to $245 million).
2. The third-quarter-specific decline in sales of major products,
including Vasotec (down 4%), Primaxin (down 7%), and Pepcid (down 8%), was
related to tough comparisons resulting from price increases (at the end of
the third quarter 1992 and second quarter 1993). This, combined with
reduced sales for older off-patent products, resulted in total sales growth
of only 3% (to $2.54 billion) during the quarter. This was offset in large
part, however, by reduced discretionary spending (the pretax margin was
39.5%) and a lower than expected tax rate of 29.9%. With a recovery in
Vasotec, Primaxin, and Pepcid (as buying patterns normalize) and the
continued improvement in the net margin (25.1% vs. 23.6% a year ago), we
expect sales to increase 4.7% to $2.72 billion in the fourth quarter and
earnings to grow 13.2% to $0.60.
3. Analysts are maintaining estimates of $2.55 (up 7.6%) and $2.75 (up 7.6%)
for 1994 and 1995, respectively, based on continuing operations, supported
by 6.6% and 6.1% revenue growth and continued cost-cutting, including
gradual headcount reduction (by attrition only) and the streamlining of
manufacturing. Merck's announced restructuring should result in
approximately $140 million in savings in the near-to-intermediate term.
These estimates also include a 1%-2% increase in tax rate (due to recent
statutory changes), reduced interest income, and the slow-down in share
repurchase.
3. Not included in the 1994 and 1995 estimates is the dilution from the
Merck-Medco merger. Assuming an interest expense of $66 million on the
$2.4 billion debt incurred, newly issued 112 million Merck shares, and
about $135 million goodwill expense per year, anticipate an 8%-9%
dilution in 1994, 4%-5% dilution in 1995, and breakeven in 1996. Thus,
completion of the Merck-Medco acquisition, which is still expected before
yearend (Merck-Medco responded to SEC on October 8 and barring any further
requests, should release the proxy in the next two weeks, followed by the
submission of the FTC's request in early November), should result in
earnings dilution to $2.38 in 1994, essentially flat with 1993.
4. Also not included in these estimates is the transfer of products
licensed from Astra to the Astra-Merck joint venture beginning in 1995.
Although the transfer of almost $1 billion in revenues of products from
Merck's revenue line will be offset by several factors, (including
discretionary spending savings, discontinued royalty payments of
approximately 10%, joint-venture profits recorded as net other, and
interest income earned on the estimated $750-$800 million payment to Merck
by Astra to buy into the joint venture), we estimate a net impact of a
negative $40-$60 million to Merck's earnings ($0.03-$0.05 per share) in
1995.
The stock currently trades at 13.1 times and 12.2 times estimated 1993 and
1994 earnings, at a premium to its 9.1 compound three-year growth rate but
well below the S&P 500 multiple. At current levels, analysts believe the
stock to be fairly valued and continue to rate it a market performer.