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1993-11-30
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PHILIP MORRIS
11/29/93
Philip Morris is the world's most profitable consumer packaged goods
holdings company. With 1993 sales (net of excise taxes) that will
collectively exceed $51 billion and net income of about $4.1 billion
(before charges), the company ranks as the world's largest cigarette
producer, third largest food processor and third largest brewer.
KEY INVESTMENT FEATURES
1.CIGARETTES CAN PRODUCE MODERATE WORLDWIDE INCOME GROWTH AGAIN -
Cigarette income will fall 28% and drop to 56% of total corporate income
in 1993 because of the U.S. price war. The proposed 75c per pack U.S.
cigarette tax hike is a further impediment to strong near-term
performance. Even so, analysts see potential for 3-4% average worldwide
unit growth and mid-single digit profit growth over a five year time-frame.
The business will also produce in excess of $3 billion of free cash flow
annually.
2.STEADY GAINS EXPECTED IN FOOD - KGF now accounts for nearly 40% of
corporate profit. Analysts look for about 8-9% worldwide operating profit
growth. Management focus has increasingly been turned towards improved
profitability in the U.S. operations that contribute 68% of division
income. The company has already divested low profitability frozen food
and ice cream businesses. The international business is being built
around core positions in coffee and confections, each of which is a
growing category outside the U.S.
3.RESTRUCTURING WILL GENERATE SUBSTANTIAL COST SAVINGS - Management
anticipates a less than three year payback period for the $952 million
restructuring charge and accounting charge that was booked in Q493. The
company is in the process of lowering headcounts by 8% and closing or
downsizing 40 manufacturing plants. Cost savings are estimated at 20c
per share in 1994 and 65-70c per share annually by 1977.
4.FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT WILL LEVERAGE GROWTH - EPS can grow 11-12% over a
five year time-frame even though operating income may grow by only 6%.
Analysts expect the company to generate $5.20 per share of free cash flow
(per dividend) in 1994. Management will likely re-initiate share
repurchases early in 1994.
5.COMPELLING VALUATIONS - Analysts have a target price is $65.70 within
twelve months. The stock currently sells at only 10x 1994 estimates or
at a 30% discount relative to the S&P 500 and it is offering a near 5%
dividend yield.
RISKS:
1.U.S. cigarette profit could drop further if price conditions become
unsettled again.
2.Consumer and competitor behavior in response to the proposed 75c per
pack U.S. cigarette excise tax can't be analyzed with any certainty.