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1994-01-01
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E.I.DU PONT
12/07/93
12/06/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr
E.I. du Pont 48.00 53-44 12/4 2.45 3.00 16.0 0.45 0.70
1. LOWER OIL PRICES HURT EARNINGS BY $0.07 PER SHARE FOR EVERY $1.00 PER
BARREL PRICE REDUCTION. Analysts had looked for flattish oil prices. The near
term reality is bearish. Analysts earnings reduction assumes that part of the
recent $3.00 per barrel price reduction will be recovered next year. Clearly,
in a more negative case EPS could be closer to $2.80 per share.
2. THE COAL STRIKE LINGERS ON THROUGH THE 4Q, HURTING EPS BY $0.07 PER SHARE
PER QUARTER. Analysts expect it to end in time for contributions to resume by
Q1, 1994 (based more on hope and press reports rather than on insights).
3. PRICING PRESSURE, OVERHEAD COST REDUCTION AND UNFAVORABLE CURRENCY REMAIN
ISSUES THAT ARE NOT NEW. Look for gradually improving volumes next year and an
abatement of the price/currency issue. The magnitude is impossible to predict
at present.
4. CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ARE FALLING BUT TO A LEVEL THAT IS STILL A BIT HIGH.
Consensus had been in the $3.50 to $3.70 range early on. It appears that
recent revisions are bringing the consensus closer to $3.10. LINGERING
DISAPPOINTMENTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
5. THOUGH THE STOCK LACKS NEAR TERM MOMENTUM, DUPONT'S VALUATION IS
REASONABLE.
DD S&P 500 PEER MEDIAN
Yield 3.7% 2.9% 3.0%
1994 P/E 15.8 14.0 15.8
1994 Price/gross cash 6.4 9.4 8.0