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05170030three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 05170030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2014
May 17 May 18 May 19
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 1 1 1
09-12UT 1 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 1 1 1
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2014
May 17 May 18 May 19
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2014
May 17 May 18 May 19
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance of an R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackout
from one of the complex regions on the visible disk (Regions 2056,
2060).