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05110030three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 05110030three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 11-May 13 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 11-May 13 2014
May 11 May 12 May 13
00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 3 3 1
06-09UT 3 3 1
09-12UT 3 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 2 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 11-May 13 2014
May 11 May 12 May 13
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 11-May 13 2014
May 11 May 12 May 13
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
throughout the forecast period due to potential flare activity from
Regions 2055 (N12E04), 2056 (N05E16) and 2058 (S15E45).