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05051230three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 05051230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 05-May 07 2014
May 05 May 06 May 07
00-03UT 2 2 4
03-06UT 3 2 3
06-09UT 3 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 2
15-18UT 1 1 3
18-21UT 1 2 3
21-00UT 2 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2014
May 05 May 06 May 07
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2014
May 05 May 06 May 07
R1-R2 40% 40% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.