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04241230three_day_forecast.txt
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:Product: 04241230three_day_forecast.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24-Apr 26 2014
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
00-03UT 3 3 2
03-06UT 2 2 1
06-09UT 3 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 2 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2014
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2014
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
R1-R2 30% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: A chance remains for NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate radio
blackouts for the next three days (24 - 26 Apr) as Region 2035 continues
to progress around the west limb and Region 2038 remains a magnetically
complex region.