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05120030forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 05120030forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2058 (S11E30, Cao/beta)
produced a C6/2n flare at 11/0443 UTC, the largest event of the
period. Region 2058 was divided into two separate regions this period
with the northwestern sunspot cluster remaining Region 2058 and the
southeastern spot cluster newly-designated as Region 2060 (S16E37,
Dai/beta-gamma). Region 2060 produced a C1 flare at 11/1744 UTC and
exhibited rapid spot growth in the leader portion of the region.
Region 2056 (N05E03, Eki/beta-gamma) produced a long-duration C3/Sf at
11/1916 UTC along with a pair of C1 flares earlier in the period. The
region showed minor spot growth in the trailer area coupled with some
spot loss within its intermediate portion. Both Regions 2056 and 2060
were the most magnetically complex spot groups this period.
The largest region on the disk, Region 2055 (N12W09, Eko/beta), produced
a pair of C1 flares early in the period. Some minor area and spot decay
was observed.
Two new regions were numbered during the past 24 hours; Region 2061
(S24E67, Cao/beta) rotated onto the disk while Region 2062 (S07W30,
Dao/beta) developed rapidly in the SW quadrant. The other regions on the
visible disk were either stable or decaying.
All detected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) this period were determined
to be non-Earth-directed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare
activity over the next three days (12 - 14 May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at normal levels for the next three days (12 - 14 May). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (12 - 14 May).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued influence from
a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds slowly increased from initial values near 340 km/s to
end-of-period values near 415 km/s, reaching a peak near 440 km/s at
around 11/0815 UTC. IMF total field values ranged from 2-9 nT. The Bz
component generally varied between -6 to +5 nT reaching a maximum
southward component of -8 nT at about 11/0300 UTC. The Phi angle was
steady in a negative (toward) sector orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced through
day one (12 May) as weak CH HSS effects persist. A slow return to
background levels is expected by day two (13 May) with another
enhancement expected by late on day three (14 May) as a weak positive
polarity CH HSS rotates into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels
with an isolated period of active conditions (11/0000-0300 UTC) due to
CH HSS effects.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
day one (12 May) as CH HSS influence subsides. Predominately quiet
conditions are expected by day two (13 May) due to a nominal solar wind
environment. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels,
are expected late on day three (14 May) due to CH HSS effects.