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04271230forecast_discussion.txt
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:Product: 04271230forecast_discussion.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Departed Region 2038 (S09, L=189)
produced a C2 x-ray flare at 26/1459 UTC. Three new regions were
numbered this period. Region 2048 (N20W43, Cao/beta) rapidly emerged on
the disk. Regions 2049 (S07E78, Dao/beta) and 2050 (N12E80, Has/alpha)
both rotated onto the disk. Region 2045 (S25W23, Cso/beta) exhibited
some growth in its trailer spots. The remaining spotted regions remained
stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (NOAA Scale R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) for the next three
days (27-29 Apr).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for day one (27 Apr) and normal to
moderate levels for days two and three (28-29 Apr). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at
background levels for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were nominal for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed was in a steady decline from around
375 km/s to end-of-period speeds of about 340 km/s. IMF Bt held steady
at 3 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative to -4 nT through about
27/0030 UTC where it remained mostly positive to +3 nT. The Phi
component indicated a mostly negative (toward) orientation throughout
the period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be nominal for days
one and two (27-28 Apr). A slight increase in wind speed is expected by
day three (29 Apr) as Earth comes under the influence of a weak,
recurrent coronal high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for the next two days (27-28
Apr). By day three (29 Apr), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
due to weak CH HSS effects.