SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 14, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs

There were some truly rotten conditions over the past week, but
there were quiet days as well.  On May 8 and 10, the A index was 37
and 46, which is very disturbed.  On May 10 at 0600z the K index
reached seven, which is so high that it is quite uncommon.  Yet the
following day at 1500z the K index was zero, so bad conditions can
improve rapidly.

The solar flux stayed around 130, and is expected to stay near there
over the next week.  There is a low point around 100 predicted for
May 29, but after that the flux is expected to rise back up to the
120 to 130 level.

June 4 and 5 may have disturbed conditions.

We are headed into sporadic-E season, so for the next month expect
these short skip openings on VHF and the higher HF bands.

Sunspot Numbers from May 6 through 12 were 84, 108, 104, 134, 137,
132 and 126, with a mean of 117.9.  10.7 cm flux was 120, 130.6,
128.7, 128.7, 134.1, 132 and 126.4, with a mean of 128.6.

The forecast for this week is from Tucson, Arizona to Cameroon.

80 meters should be open from 0130z to 0530z, and peak from 0330z to
0430z.  40 meters should be useable from 0030z to 0600z, and
30 meters from 0000z to 0700z.  20 meters should be open from 2230z
to 0300z and again from 0600z to 0730z.  17 meters should be
reliable from 2130z to 0200z.  15 meters should be open on some days
from 1800z to 0130z.  The outlook for 10 and 12 meters over this
path does not look promising.
/EX