SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  January 21, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar flux was down a bit last week, an average of 17 points
relative to the previous week.  Geomagnetic activity was up a bit
toward the end of the period, with a few episodes of the K index
reaching five.  The flux dipped just below 100, and is now heading
back up, with a predicted peak near 135 in a few days.  It is then
expected to head down toward 105 around February 9, before rising
again.  Active geomagnetic conditions are forecast for the day that
this bulletin is released, and again around January 28 and
February 8.

The latest long range forecast shows the solar flux rising a few
points on the average until April, then dropping back below the
current level by this Fall, and an average 12 points lower a year
from now.  The flux minimum is expected by January of February,
1997, and the next maximum in the Summer of 2000.

Sunspot Numbers from January 13 through 19 were 61, 46, 45, 49, 34,
43 and 39, with a mean of 45.3.  10.7 cm flux was 95, 90.2, 95.7,
100.3, 105.4, 100.7 and 103, with a mean of 98.6.

The path projection for this weekend is from Newport News, Virginia
to Angola.

The low end of 80 meters should be good from 2230z to 0500z, but
the high end of 75 meters could open a half hour earlier and close a
half hour later.  40 meters looks good from 2130z to 0600z, and 30
meters from 2030z to 0700z, with the most promising periods from
2230z to 0030z, and around 0600z.  20 meters looks good from 1900z
to 2300z, and 17 meters from 1600z to 2100z.  15 meters should be
open from 1300z to 2000z, 12 meters from 1400z to 2000z, and 10
meters from 1500z to 1900z.
/EX