SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  January 7, 1994
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar activity rose again last week, with flux an average 17 points
higher than the week previous.  New Years Day was the biggest treat,
with the flux at 148.3, higher than on any day since March 12, 1993.
Coronal hole activity produced some geomagnetic disturbances, but
nothing really major.

Solar flux should fall this week, dropping to 100 around January 12,
and then rise again toward a peak around January 26 of 140.  There
is a chance of some moderately disturbed conditions around January
12 or 13, and again, but possibly more severe, around January 28.

Sunspot Numbers from December 30 through January 5 were 110, 134,
130, 94, 134, 131 and 154, with a mean of 126.7.  10.7 cm flux was
142.8, 140.8, 148.3, 146, 133.1, 128.8 and 136.9, with a mean of
139.5

The path projection for this week is from Garland, Texas to Brazil.
It is based on a flux of 115 for Saturday, January 8.

80 meters should be good from 2330z to 0930z, with the best time
from 0130z to 0830z.  40 meters looks good from 2300z to 1000z, with
the best conditions from 0030z to 0900z.  30 meters should be open
from 2230z to 0800z or 0900z, with the best bet for propagation from
0000z to 0200z, and from 0630z to 0800z.  20 meters should be good
from 1900z to 0030z, although on some days it may be open as early
as 1300z and as late as 0600z.  17 meters looks good from 1400z to
2230z, and 15 meters from 1500z to 2130z.  12 meters should be open
from 1600z to 1900z, and on some days as early as 1500z and as late
as 2200z.  10 meters looks marginal over this path, but on many days
it could be open from 1600z to 2100z.
/EX