Three-dimensional worlds ... Multi-user interaction ... CD-ROM hybrids. You've heard the buzzwords. You may have even "experienced the magic." But chances are you've voluntarily limited 99.9% of your Internet experiences to clicking text links and image maps, downloading GIFs and JPEGs, and listening to the occasional random MIDI file.
The Internet is in the throes of an adolescent growth spurt. It's technological hormones are running amuck, and like any confused teenager, it's not quite sure what it wants to be when it grows up. Rumors of its maturation have been greatly exaggerated.
What we have here, people, is a chasm between reality and vapor. Evangelists on the vanguard of Internet development are quick to promise us mind-blowing bells and whistles, but when you actually test their wares on a 486/66 with 16 MB of RAM--or even, dare we say, a Mac--you quickly discover that heaven will have to wait. Cutting-edge technology sounds good, but when you actually try to use it, it always seems to be reserved for someone else. Someone with the right computer, the right software, and the high bandwidth connection. And when you try to become that person, your machine inevitably crashes under the pageantry of taxing screen redraws and buggy code. Yes, cutting-edge Internet gimmickry is like a pure-bred Dalmatian pup. It's loaded with personality and good looks--but make any sudden moves, and it pees all over your carpet.
To help you grope your way through the Internet vapor, we've picked the trendiest Internet technologies, run them through a reality check, and handicapped their Estimated Time of Ubiquity--that's ETU, or when, if ever, they'll be taken for granted as mainstays of the typical user experience.
3D Worlds Most people with an age below (or an IQ over) 89 have no trouble mastering the "complex" and "frustrating" two-dimensional Web browser interface. Nonetheless, a cadre of developer-zealots has decided that we would all be much happier navigating 3D environments. Enter VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language), an open standard that lets anyone with the right tools build or access a 3D Internet world. We're talking polygon-based environments with that familiar first-person Doom gaming perspective. But therein lies the rub: Because we're so familiar with those lush, easily navigated gaming environments, we're inevitably disappointed when we get our first taste of VRML's spartan polygons, modest-to-non-existent texture-mapping, and dubious movement physics that range from herky-jerky to one-false-move-and-you're-upside-down.
VRML has a two-version legacy, and while both iterations look essentially the same, the second grants more interactivity. Version 1.0 gives you first-person navigation and 3D objects that can spin around on their own axes. Version 2.0 adds background audio, and gives you proximity sensors that, for example, open doors as you approach them. Version 3.0 promises a wider variety of movement and physics options, streamed audio and video, and multi-user interaction native to the spec. VRML evangelists typically list virtual trade shows, 3D library catalogs, and theme-oriented chat communities as natural applications for their technology's wonderful utility.
Reality Check You'll be left out of the VRML fold unless you have the right browser plug-in, a superfast connection to download all those polygons, and a PC--not a Mac--fit for a 3D developer (since VRML rendering can be CPU-intensive). Of course, even if you can swing all the right gear, the worlds that are currently live and available for perusal may leave you feeling cheated. Building a 3D environment that's artistically and architecturally compelling is rocket science, at least for most of the repositioned 2D Webmasters who are just getting their HTML sea legs.
Acknowledging VRML's drawbacks, developers have relegated their worlds to "proof-of-concept" status: Most of the environments have become demonstrations of the technology's potential rather than publicly marketed entertainment arenas. Indeed, even the most robust and well-publicized 3D worlds may have only about 100 users roaming around during periods of peak activity. Many developers themselves admit they would rather spend more time on the Web than strolling through their own kingdoms.
ETU Even with the advent of cheaper, more powerful computers, 3D worlds will never become as common to the Internet experience as hyperlinks and JPEGs; too many people find 3D navigation to be tedious if not nauseating. Those who do appreciate 3D (read multi-user gamers) already prefer to run their content off of CD-ROMs and use the Internet to transfer x, y, z coordinates. The bottom line: Given that no one in the history of humankind has ever described 3D served over the Internet without mentioning its flaws, barring a sweeping, consumer-level bandwidth breakthrough, the technology will remain a novelty.
Multi-User Interaction Multi-user computing is neither a new technology nor new to the Internet. The use of a single UNIX box to serve a shared operating environment is part and parcel of a suite of Internet-based chat models (see "Cutting Through the Chatter," January '97). What's more, if you want to talk about computing in general, you'll find that various incarnations of multi-user DOS have long enabled cubicle monkeys to use a single CPU and operating system to share the same office apps simultaneously.
So what qualifies multi-user as a cutting-edge technology, Internet or otherwise? Because it's an innovation in relation to VRML, and a stumbling block on the road to 3D virtual communities. In its current state, VRML has no native facility for multi-user interaction; the language merely describes objects and movements. If you enter a VRML world with no multi-user extensions, you'll find yourself in a virtual mausoleum--like the Meadowlands during football season. Multi-user capability--ranging from text-based chat all the way up to real-time audio communication--is where real VRML development is at.
Reality Check As previously stated, multi-user Internet content is real--it's real! You may find no compelling reason to share your cyberspace with others, but if you're so inclined, you can put down this magazine, download the right client software, and immediately explore bare-bones Telnet chat, The Palace (a two-dimensional, proprietary chat cartoonland), and Internet gaming services such as Total Entertainment Network (TEN). All allow you to interact with others in real-time--and TEN lets you kill people! Of course, depending on your application, you may find problems with latency, those pesky time delays that occur between the initiation and execution of an action. While this has no debilitating effect on text chat, it can become a factor in multi-user gaming.
In the 3D/VRML arena, you'll find that most visually robust of the few worlds available for exploration do in fact offer multi-user interaction (it's not as if the people behind the best graphics let multi-user slip by as an afterthought). Worlds, Inc.'s proprietary environment looks the best, and seems to have a good user base compared to VRML competitors. Black Sun has a head start in leading the "true VRML" pack, and is focusing development not on its own world but on building server software for commercial sites that are convinced multi-user chat is the answer to boosting hit counts (and thus advertising revenue).
Several players are competing with Black Sun to build the killer multi-user VRML app. Since this particular market is still realizing itself, content providers are hemming and hawing on which standard to use; no one wants to build sophisticated worlds in an environment that doesn't guarantee a legacy of upcoming new and improved versions. This factor alone currently makes multi-user VRML a vaporous rarity as one clicks around the Internet.
ETU As long as you're not bent on exploring a wide variety of 3D environments, you can jump into a multi-user Internet app immediately. But because 3D technology is in such a primitive state, multi-user VRML is even further away from becoming part of the mainstream Internet experience, even for chat addicts.
CD-ROM/Internet Hybrids
What's the best way to boost the bandwidth of the Internet? Bypass the information superhighway altogether. CD-ROM/Internet hybrids access huge media files directly from a CD-ROMs rather than downloading them across the Internet. The concept is simple, and it promises to be a quick fix until there's a sweeping, consumer-level bandwidth solution. On the consumer end, all you have to do is visit a Web site, download the site's architectural skeleton, and then have the site make calls to your local disc drive for the high-bandwidth media. No more waiting for audio, video, and 3D polygons. Everyone's happy, right?
Well, not quite. For starters, you have to (1) have a CD-ROM drive, (2) somehow acquire a site's particular CD-ROM, and (3) possibly pay for content, which runs roughshod over the whole Internet-as-populist-utopia paradigm.
It gets worse if you're an Internet content provider. You, friend, now have to get into the CD-ROM production business. Just when you thought you had found the ultimate content distribution scheme that eliminated materials overhead once and for all, you discover you now have to press a whole slew of plastic discs, and somehow get them into the hands of everyone who might want to visit your Web site. And since you're an Internet content provider, your discs have to be multi-platform.
Reality Check Aforementioned drawbacks aside, the hybrid model actually works. The only nagging stumbling block involves the seamless integration between the disc and the remote Internet site. When using hybrid discs on PCs, a site's HTML must somehow decipher the location of your CD-ROM drive in order pull media from the correct directory (it's usually C:, but it might be D:). While this dilemma can be overcome with creative scripting, there's no standard for doing so yet, so every content provider with this type of hybrid disc has to tackle the question on its own.
Currently distributed hybrid content ranges from discs such as The Net's own CD-ROM, which include hyperlinks that shoot you straight into cyberspace, to discs that provide lush graphics and high-quality audio to flesh out multi-user gaming environments.
ETU CD-ROM-Internet hybrids are here. Infotech Inc., a Woodstock, Vt., technology consulting firm, reports that more than 750 hybrid CD-ROMs hit market in 1996, and up to 3,500 are projected to be released this year (that titles, not copies, folks). The majority of these new arrivals will be self-contained discs that shoot you into the Internet for minor updates, rather than vehicles expressly designed for fleshing out online entertainment experiences. However, "bandwidth platters" do work well for the sites that have invested the time and energy to distribute them. If you ever come across the opportunity to use one--and, hey, you might have received such a gem with your copy of this magazine--seize the day.
And Lest We Forget... In addition to the big three mentioned above, other technological trends are vying to change the way we use the Internet. Some have been vapor for so long, we've grown accustomed to their, well ... vaporness (vaporosity? vaportude? je ne sais vapoire?). Others are just beginning to spread their fragile little vapor wings. Here are three to keep an eye on.
Streamed Media OK, we define streamed media in practically every issue of the magazine, so... here's your dose for March!
Streamed media lets you enjoy digital audio or video as it downloads; you don't have to wait for the file to complete its journey across the Internet before it begins playing. RealAudio is the premiere streamed audio solution. It sounds good, it's thoroughly reliable, and its server software has been available for more than a year. But somehow, it has yet to make a significant impact on the Web--99% of Web sites that should be using RealAudio have ignored the product. If the RealAudio client software shipped native in all Web browsers, you'd likely be using the technology day in and day out.
Streamed video solutions such as VDOLive and ClearFusion are still in their infancy. Since video files are much larger than audio files, streamed video won't become ubiquitous to the typical Internet experience until compression and bandwidth technologies improve. The technology is stable, however, so there's no reason why streamed video can't be an effective device for high-speed intranets.
Personalized Content The current Internet paradigm requires that you scour the ether for random nuggets of content. It's called "recreational surfing," and many people find it entertaining. The proposed Internet paradigm reverses everything: You kick back and relax while database-driven Web sites send you information pertaining to pre-defined topics of interest. It's called "I don't have time to sift through 20,000 AltaVista hits," and some people desperately need it to effectively do their jobs.
In developer jargon, the movement toward personalization is intertwined with a move away from a "pull" model (waiting for surfers to stumble across your site) to a "push" model (proactively enticing visitors to stop by offering custom content or e-mail alerts). Personalized content already exists in the form of personalized news updates from the likes of Infoseek and PointCast, and it promises to expand into "Internet magic" as companies such as Miramba work to give us automatic software updates whenever new versions of our favorite programs become available.
Personalized content relies on server-side databases to do the dirty work: You enter some personal information into the database (perhaps involuntarily, little brother), and the server pushes you information it thinks you'll like. Let's see, there are about a kazillion Web servers out there that will have to be retooled in order to effect a widespread consumer paradigm shift. Will it happen? Yes--on high-profile sites with flexible business plans. If you're the type who frequents big-name commercial sites, keep your eyes peeled for unsolicited content gifts during the next 12 months.
A Webless Net When you're exploring multi-user VRML worlds, playing games over TEN, and digesting news updates from PointCast, you're not actually on the Web. You're using Internet Protocol to send and receive data across vast intercontinental networks. Your interface for this activity is not a Web browser, but some type of client software expressly designed for the task at hand. So will the Web as we know it expire if today's vapor condenses into something more solid?
The future will take us in one of three directions:
Of course, the only predictions that really count aren't those of the pundits, the developers, or even the all-seeing, all-knowing magazine editors. Ultimately, the only predictions that matter are those of the Internet's millions of citizens. Send your thoughts on the future of the Net to futurenet@thenet-usa.com. Let's work together to get the jump on tomorrow before it gets the jump on us.