Copyright © 1995 Robert Seidman (robert@clark.net). All rights reserved. May be reproduced in any medium for non-commercial purposes.
Last week, I encouraged you to subscribe to Educom's Edupage if you were interested in brief news abstracts on the high tech industry. Unfortunately, I gave an old address. For some it worked, for some it didn't, but I highly recommend it, so here's the correct subscription info:
To subscribe to Edupage: send a message to: listproc@educom.unc.edu and in the body of the message type: subscribe edupage Scott Kurnit (assuming that your name is Scott Kurnit; if it's not, substitute your own name).
Sadly, this marks the last issue of "In, Around and Online". But don't get misty-eyed on me, I'm not quitting the newsletter, I'm just changing the name. Beginning next week, the newsletter will be called "Seidman's Online Insider".
To the many who wrote in to say, "Are you crazy, 'In, Around and Online' is a great name," I give you my thanks. I'm sort of partial to that name, too. Especially since I picked it! But too many people have said it was a lousy name. The new name doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy either, but I believe it's a lot catchier than the old one. Over a year ago, I wasn't very concerned whether the newsletter had a catchy name or not, but now that I've dedicated so much time to it, I have a few reasons for wanting a catchy name.
To those who will undoubtedly complain that the new name has "tabloid" implications, I agree, but I have no plans to become the National Inquirer of the online world. "Ned Brainard" over at HotWired already has that title sewn up with the "Flux" column.
Last week, I reported some of the results of a study done by Norwalk, Ct. based INTECO corporation. This week I had the opportunity to speak with Rob Rubin, vice president of INTECO. Rubin explained in great detail the methodology of the study. Essentially, they felt a very large base was important and they surveyed over 10,000 people through August. The survey, which took on average, about 30 minutes to answer, asked many questions and was not just focused on the online industry.
As noted last week, the study demonstrated something that the online services don't speak much about-a lot of people cancel the services after trying them.
While the study painted a pretty bleak picture based on online services retention stats, Rubin is still optimistic.
"Even with the cancellations, the industry is growing at an incredibly rapid rate," said Rubin.
"From May to August, the number of individuals accessing an online service grew from 6.2 million to 6.7 million. What industry wouldn't take that kind of growth," he added.
INTECO's study showed some other interesting trends:
These figures are staggering in some ways because they suggest that over 70% of home users with modems have tried an online service and that almost 53% of home PC users with modems currently use an online service. According to Rubin, over half of those using an online service are using America Online.
Last week I also wrote about a story in the Wall Street Journal by Jared Sandberg. Sandberg reported that America Online counted the 30 day trial subscriptions in its subscriber numbers. I then did a little figuring that suggested that trial customers would only represent roughly 200K of AOL's reported 3.5+ million subscribers. There was an error in my thinking though, because it only took NET growth into account.
Rubin estimates that in August, of the 3.4 million AOL subscribers reported for that time, about 640,000 of them were trial accounts. Rubin factors in the cancellation results of his survey with AOL's continued growth rate.
"AOL's focus is on acquisition, not retention," said Rubin.
You can't fault AOL for their focus, it's paying off for them in a big way. In spite of good growth, the high cancellation rate demonstrates that AOL will ultimately have to focus more on retention. Over AOL's history, about half the subscribers have canceled according to the study, though AOL has done much better than the other online services in that regard.
I asked Rubin about the high retention statistics for Internet service providers. Rubin confirmed my suspicion that those results weren't apples to apples, because of the length of time most of those services have been around. INTECO's study was based on the life of a service, so it isn't surprising that AOL, Prodigy and CompuServe cancellation numbers were higher, because they've been in service longer than most Internet providers.
Other nuggets from the INTECO study:
Rubin finds the trend towards television style "programming" currently being employed by online services interesting.
"At 14.4 and 28.8 dial up speeds there's just not that much compelling entertainment content available," said Rubin.
Rubin believes that more bandwidth is necessary in order for the online services to program compelling enough content to bring a mass market audience. We agree...
Rubin gave me some other interesting statistics relating to things like the number of people online that read the business section of newspapers vs. the overall population, the number of books users of online services have in their homes compared to the overall population, etc. INETCO's findings seem to indicate that the consumer online audience is still largely composed of the information consumer.
While the INTECO study has many serious findings, my hat is off to the gang at INTECO for REALLY knowing how to have FUN with numbers. I found this little ditty on their Web page:
You have to love it! For more information on INTECO or their study, you can visit their Web page at: <http://www.inteco.com>. Rob Rubin is available at rrubin@inteco.com .
"For the cost of a burger and fries, every family can now join the Internet community," said Tim Oren, vice president and general manager of CompuServe's Internet Division.
Thus began last week's press release announcing a new Internet service from CompuServe cleverly dubbed "SPRYTE", a play on the company name "SPRY" which CompuServe acquired earlier in the year for a cool $100 million and the low cost of the service.
At $4.95/mo. for 3 hours of service, SPRYTE is CompuServe's attempt at a frontal assault on the Microsoft Network's pricing and the ease which MSN allows Internet access.
Additional hours beyond the 3 will cost $1.95. SPRYTE will also be available at pricing of $9.95/mo. for 7 hours, or $19.95 for 20 hours. Additional hours for these plans will also be $1.95/hour.
SPRYTE will come with the SPRY Mosaic, SPRY Mail and the forthcoming Home Page Wizard.
The service is expected to be available by the end of the year.
Many have written to complain about the lack of "offline" automation available on MSN. I recently asked Microsoft vice president and head of MSN Russell Siegelman about future plans.
"Reading offline e-mail works today," noted Siegelman, adding, "You can also have the Exchange client log in, download your e-mail, and then log off."
But Siegelman knows this isn't a truly "automated" feature.
"Scheduling of this is a nice feature that we are considering for the future," he said.
But there's more to life than e-mail (at least that's what they tell me, I'm not so sure anymore..)
"Offline reading of bbs's is on the plate and (we) expect to have it in a future release in the near future," Siegelman said, adding that, "This would be similar to standard news readers."
But that's all kind of boring stuff that's been done, MSN has big plans that they'll begin using when they switch to Blackbird based forms (Blackbird is an online publishing tool that MS plans to release in the first half of '96).
"Blackbird has the feature that users can schedule the download of any Blackbird title," notes Siegelman.
"So for example you can tell MSN to download your online newspaper (created in Blackbird) to download today's edition in the middle of the night and have it ready first thing in the morning," Siegelman told me.
The above example gets is even more interesting in light of Microsoft's recent minority equity investment in the Burlington, Mass based Individual Inc., a company who provides news filtering services.
Initially, Individual's iNews will be available to MSN subscribers. With iNews, MSN members will be able to select certain criteria for receiving news on selected topics.
But both companies are assessing additional ways that will take advantage of Individual's news filtering technology.
"We want our subscribers to be able to customize their online experience, especially with news, and Individual's set of proprietary technologies enable MSN to provide this valuable offering," said Siegelman in a press release.
Understanding that I am not a typical user of online services, I still can't help but wonder if TCP/IP is turning the Internet into the "phone company" of the digitally connected world.
For well over a year, I have been connecting to America Online and CompuServe more regularly than other services because I could connect to these services via the Internet.
The benefits of that sort of connection are that you can connect to the services more quickly, often at higher speeds than are available via dial-up, and you don't have to disconnect your phone line to call each service individually. It's getting to be as easy as flicking the remote control is for scanning the television. Ah, TCP/IP...
Maybe I'm full of it, but I'll tell you this - this week, AT&T's Interchange released a new version of their software that among other things offered connection to Interchange via TCP/IP.
Result: I've used Interchange more in the last 3 days than I have in the last 3 months.
Sure, it's still slow, and sometimes the databases still crash. But, it's a lot easier to connect to now, and it may be an illusion, but it does seem faster connecting via a 28.8 Kbps TCP/IP connection than it is via 14.4 X.25 dial-up connection.
At the beginning of the year, I said I thought I'd use Interchange personally because of Digital Ink (the online service on Interchange from the Washington Post). Well, as it turns out, I haven't used it much at all. Until this week. Now that it is "easier" to connect to, I have read the Post the last 3 days electronically.
Interchange's new release also incorporates integrated Web links. If you're an Interchange subscriber, dial-up or otherwise, you can download the Netscape browser. Links within Interchange will fire up Netscape and take you directly to pages. If you already have Netscape, all you need is the new software from Interchange which is available by download.
Don't get me wrong, I still think the Interchange model won't work and that ultimately they'll be forced to go the AOL route and make everything available at $9.95/mo. But, their client is slick and getting better. Still, until they change the model, improve speed, and add chat and instant messaging, Interchange will just be another pretty online face that loses money.
But, you have to give credit where credit is due, they did a nice job with their web links integration, and I am obviously pleased with the TCP/IP connectivity. Interchange is currently only available as a Windows application. While the press release claimed that the TCP/IP connection was only supported by the winsock.dll files from Distinct, LAN Workplace for DOS and Windows 95, I had no trouble connecting with the winsock provided by Netmanage's Chameleon. But it didn't work with the winsock supplied with AOL's GNN Internet service (formerly MegaWeb) which is currently in beta testing. Speaking of that...
While AOL's own integrated Web browser continues to frustrate me with slow performance and sometimes causes AOL to lock up on me, I was pleasantly shocked by the latest version of the GNN beta browser. GNN is a stand alone Internet service that was originally planned for launch on August 24 (the same day as Windows 95). When it didn't launch, AOL claimed they wanted their own day in the spotlight and didn't want to get lost in all the hype surrounding Win 95. Yeah, yeah, yeah... It just wasn't ready yet.
But, it's getting close now, and they've done an excellent job with the browser. The GNN browser now incorporates some HTML 3 and Netscapese, as well as security features. It also is the first "stand alone" browser I've seen that leverages the ART graphics compression technology by Johnson-Grace .
On a 28.8 Kbps connection via AOLNET, the browser is quite fast. Though in a few time trials loading StarWave/ESPN's SportsZone <http://espnet.sportszone.com>, Netscape loaded slightly faster than the GNN browser. But, the good news is that SportsZone LOOKED like it was supposed to look.
I asked AOL CEO, Steve Case if we could expect to see some of the new features in the GNN browser make their way into the AOL integrated browser.
"We are making substantial enhancements to AOL's suite of Internet technologies; for example, as you noticed, we now support the HTML 3.0 and Netscape extensions. These technologies are then productized by our AOL and GNN brands," said Case.
"It is therefore only a matter of time before the enhancements you've noticed in the new GNN beta are made available to AOL customers," Case added.
Case has always been clear that the AOL and GNN brands will have separate identities.
"... the feature sets will always be a little different (even though they share common code) as we are targeting different markets with AOL (aiming for a mass market; simplicity is important to reach novices) and GNN (aiming at a more targeted and more sophisticated audience that expects more power and is willing to embrace more complexity," Case said.
AOL's integrated browser with its Windows version continues to suffer performance problems. I've come to the conclusion that it is directly related to load on the AOL system. I've used AOL's Web browser before at 2 in the morning, and it is indeed the fastest browser I've used. Unfortunately, at 8pm, it's a different story. I can't help but wonder sometimes if AOL wouldn't have been better off taking the Interchange approach of a separate browser application that still offers integrated links on the online side. If I use AOL's winsock and run Netscape or GNN via an AOL connection at 8pm, both browsers work very well.
I've heard nothing but complaints about the implementation on the Mac side, though I confess I haven't looked at it. I plan to look at the 2.6 version of AOL for the Mac, as well as a new version of eWorld next week.
ZIFF-DAVIS is offering it's own personalized news service on the ZDNet Web site. It only covers the Computer/High-Tech industry, but, it's FREE at: <http://www.zdnet.com >.
ANOTHER AD BLITZ - On the heels of AOL's recent media blitz (and I'm beginning to wonder if AOL's campaign is painting AOL subscribers in a favorable light...), CompuServe is planning a massive ad campaign which it calls the "largest, most aggressive advertising blitz in history". The campaign is set to kick off on Sunday (10/15).
VISIT A FEW of Wall Street Journal Personal Technology columnist, Walter Mossberg's favorite Web sites in this week's column at <http://ptech.wsj.com/ >. My site didn't make the list, but I'm still young...
BEEP BEEP - CompuServe announced that next month it will begin allowing members to send messages (numeric or alphanumeric) to other CompuServe members who have pagers. Members can also be notified by a pager when they receive e-mail. The new paging services are part of an exclusive arrangement with Jersey City based RPA. Unless they come up with some quality filtering tools for sending notification to a pager, for me, such a service would make me a nervous wreck!
!NTERACT is the name of a new business-to-business networking service from US WEST. Partnered with Lotus, Netscape and Cisco Systems, and Microsoft and billed as "The complete Internet networking service," US WEST has no plans to package content. "It's about connectivity, not content," said US WEST's Rebecca Herbst. For more info, see <http://www.uswest.com/interact/intro.html >.
THE ROUGH GUIDE is now available on HotWired courtesy of Rough Guides and HotWired. Extensive travel information is now available for the US, with coverage for Canada, Mexico, and Britain and more coming soon. Personally I hate this site because it makes me want to quit my job, throw the desktop in the garbage, and go traveling. (I'd want to keep the ThinkPad though!) Check it out at: <http://www.hotwired.com/rough/ >
HOOKED ON SUCK? I don't know, but..but..I keep going back to suck site <http://www.suck.com > and it doesn't even have any dirty pictures or sports scores. Somehow, suck has managed to out HotWire HotWired. I sometimes wonder if the "Ned Brainard" collective at HotWired is moonlighting at suck. But the suck domain is registered to a company with a phone in Ohio. I just don't see Ned getting anywhere NEAR Ohio (unless the Nedsters are big fans of the Tribe). suck is sort of like the cool-site-of-the-day. Cool-site-of-the-day from hell that is. But, like I said, I keep going back.
This Last 52 52
Week's Week's Week Week
Company Ticker Close Close High Low
------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
America Online AMER $65.25 $63.75 $74.50 $14.94
Apple AAPL $36.00 $35.69 $50.94 $33.63
AT&T T $62.38 $64.00 $66.38 $47.25
Bolt,Beranek & Newman BBN $34.88 $36.25 $39.38 $12.63
FTP Software FTPS $24.63 $25.38 $35.50 $20.25
General Elec. GE $63.00 $62.88 $64.63 $45.38
H&R Block HRB $40.00 $40.13 $47.25 $33.00
IBM IBM $92.50 $94.13 $114.63 $68.00
MCI MCIC $24.38 $25.44 $27.13 $17.25
Mecklermedia Corp. MECK $14.00 $14.00 $24.38 $ 2.13
Microsoft MSFT $86.25 $85.88 $109.25 $55.00
Netcom NETC $45.00 $42.00 $47.63 $16.75
Netscape Comm. Corp NSCP $67.25 $63.25 $75.00 $45.75
NetManage NETM $19.38 $22.00 $27.25 $12.00
News Corp. NWS $21.25 $21.38 $25.13 $14.38
Performance Syst. Intl PSIX $15.38 $16.63 $25.50 $12.00
Sears S $35.38 $35.88 $37.63 $21.50
Spyglass Inc. SPYG $36.75 $38.25 $54.00 $26.50
UUNET Technologies UUNT $43.38 $39.63 $51.75 $21.75
I began writing this newsletter in September 1994, at the time I was working for a technology company that is now owned by MCI. In March, I began working for International Business Machines Corporation. As of July, my management has agreed to allow me to do some work on the newsletter during business hours (probably about 6-8 hours a week). I speak for myself and not for IBM.
To subscribe to this newsletter by e-mail:
Send an e-mail message to: LISTSERV@PEACH.EASE.LSOFT.COM In the BODY of the message type:
If you wish to remove yourself from the list please DO NOT reply to this message -- send an e-mail message to:
LISTSERV@PEACH.EASE.LSOFT.COM with the text SIGNOFF ONLINE-L in the body of the message.