:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/0654Z from Region 2056 (N04W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
May, 20 May, 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
17/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2211Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0218Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21
May).

III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 128
Predicted   19 May-21 May 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        18 May 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/15