:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/0704Z from Region 2056 (N06W63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
16/2023Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0756Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19
May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 139
Predicted   17 May-19 May 135/130/135
90 Day Mean        16 May 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05