:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
07/1629Z from Region 2051 (S09, L=060). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May,
10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
07/0043Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1958Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1958Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 146
Predicted   08 May-10 May 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        07 May 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/008-008/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/45