:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1021Z from Region 1996 (N16, L=051) which rotated off the east limb
yesterday. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at
14/0523Z but was generally around 450 km/s. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1258Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 144
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  006/008-008/005-008/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/15